OPEC cuts oil demand forecast again as Strait of Hormuz closure continues
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut the expected global oil demand for 2026 again on Thursday.
OPEC’s June report showed a slightly downward trend in forecasted oil demand worldwide for the rest of the year, releasing the report during a heightened week of tensions in the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Much of the recent concern has centered on the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran announced a full closure of the crucial oil-shipping waterway on Wednesday evening.
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The OPEC report for June forecasted that world oil demand would increase by about 970,000 barrels per day in 2026, down from May’s growth estimate of what the group called a “healthy” 1.17 million barrels per day. The report called the month-to-month change a “minor downward adjustment.” But May’s report had also been a downward trend from the month prior, falling from 1.38 million barrels per day in April to 1.17 million barrels per day in May.
OPEC, however, forecasts that global oil demand next year will “rebound and grow” at a rate of 1.73 million barrels per day. This estimate is more positive than the May estimate of 1.54 million barrels per day.
Iran’s crude oil production also fell by 546,000 barrels from April to May, the only OPEC nation to record a drop in crude oil production, according to the report. The nation went from producing 2.875 million barrels in April to 2.330 million barrels a day in May. The drop in production aligned with the Trump administration’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
In contrast, President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the U.S. has successfully moved “more than 100 MILLION Barrels of Oil” through the strait and to the energy markets. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the Jones Act waiver helped in this effort.
“This wildly successful effort is because the UNITED STATES of AMERICA CONTROLS the Strait of Hormuz — NOT Iran,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday. “Their military is defeated, and their economy is lost.”
The U.S. fired a round of strikes against Iran on Wednesday evening in response to the regime downing an Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz. In response to the U.S. strikes, the Iranian regime resumed its chokehold on ships crossing the strait, throwing the energy industry into turmoil.
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Trump said he would strike Iran again on Thursday evening and announced he would soon move to seize Kharg Island.
“The United States will be hitting Iran (Whose Navy, Air Force, Radar, Anti Aircraft, and all other forms of Defense, together with most of its offensive capability, are GONE!), VERY HARD TONIGHT,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday morning.
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