Newsom’s Move on Abortion in Arizona Sets Stage for Potential 2028 Showdown
California Governor Gavin Newsom’s recent move regarding abortion access in Arizona has caught attention as a potential strategy for his 2028 presidential ambitions. By proposing legislation to counter Arizona’s strict abortion law, Newsom positions himself prominently in the national debate on reproductive rights, aligning with Vice President Kamala Harris as a key advocate in the Democratic Party.
Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s (D-CA) latest attempt to give Arizona doctors cover to conduct abortions in California marks another subtle notch on the governor’s possible presidential bid in 2028.
The California governor proposed legislation that would circumvent a ruling from Arizona’s Supreme Court upholding a Civil War-era law banning nearly all abortions.
As the nation struggles with how to regulate abortion access, Newsom’s proposal also allows Democrats to keep abortion access in Arizona, one of the seven important battleground states, at the national forefront amid an election year.
It also keeps him in the spotlight as one of the leading abortion rights leaders alongside Vice President Kamala Harris, who has become President Joe Biden’s most important point person pushing back against attacks on abortion.
The two California leaders are two of the top contenders to lead the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee list. Their work on abortion will help them both make the case to members of the party as to why they are most likely to lead a post-Biden Democratic Party.
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“This Arizona law is the first border-state law that will directly impact the state of California,” Newsom said during a press conference announcing the proposal. “Rather than just acknowledging that fate and future, we’re trying to get ahead of this law, which goes into effect on June 8.”
Abortion access has been a successful galvanizing tool for Democrats in several elections after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade in June 2022.
The battle over reproductive access staved off deep losses during the 2022 midterm elections and led to several victories during the 2023 off-year election.
Now Arizona’s Supreme Court ruling allowing an 1864 law on abortion to stand has turbocharged the issue as Democrats moved quickly to denounce former President Donald Trump and the GOP for being indirectly responsible for the decision.
Harris has held a nationwide tour, including visiting Arizona, touting the Biden administration’s efforts to protect abortion access and also ginning up support among Democrats, independents, and Republicans who want some abortion access.
As the nation’s first woman vice president, Harris adds a unique perspective in slamming the Republican Party’s attacks on abortion.
She will make the campaign’s case in Jacksonville, Florida, a state Democrats are making a play for in 2024, on May 1, the same day when a six-week abortion ban will go into effect.
But Newsom is taking it one step further, and keeping his name in the minds of voters, by giving doctors in Arizona another option to treat patients seeking abortion.
“This is going to be a very popular move among Democratic voters across the country, but politically I also think it’s a sound move for his future depending on whether he wants to run for president or perhaps something else,” said Randy Jones, a Democratic political consultant, on Newsom’s announcement. “It certainly seems like that’s what he’s aligning himself for. But I also think it’s a move that can potentially help Democrats in this election cycle as well.”
Some Republican experts concede that abortion is a popular topic that all Democrats, including Newsom, are using to help win races in 2024.
“It’s going to be a talking point for him,” said Barrett Marson, a GOP consultant based in Phoenix who grew up in Southern California. “He’s going to be able to say during some campaign, ‘I stood up for women to save abortion.’ And he is going to be able to see that in a campaign ad or something like that. From that perspective, it does help him.”
Marson was also skeptical that Harris and Newsom’s increased attacks against Republicans over abortion would lead to tensions between the two leaders.
“Every Democrat is trying to talk about abortion and what it means, either in their state or for the country,” he said. “A lot of Democrats are using abortion as a wedge issue in this campaign. So I don’t think this is in competition with Kamala Harris. I think every Democrat is running on this issue across the country.”
“It’s a winning issue for Democrats,” Jones added. “I think it makes perfect sense that the vice president would be championing this issue, as well as the governor of California.”
Other experts told the Washington Examiner that Newsom’s actions are more than just political fodder for a presidential campaign.
“While Newsom is politically minded and politically talented and likely a candidate in 2024, there is a moral kind of position that I think guides his actions,” said Tom Hollihan, a University of Southern California professor who studies political campaign communication. “And those of many others who believe that criminalizing medical care for women, in what is often their most vulnerable moments of life and where their future childbearing capacity may be at risk, is really a situation that we don’t want to have to put doctors or women who may become pregnant in.”
“And a lot of Democrats really strongly believe that, and frankly, so do a lot of independents,” he continued.
CAGOP Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson dismissed Newsom’s latest maneuvering and questioned whether his state record warranted aspirations of higher office.
“California currently has a $73 billion budget deficit, the nation’s highest gas prices, nation’s highest unemployment rate, nation’s largest homeless population, an affordability crisis, rampant crime and failing schools,” she told the Washington Examiner. Instead of tackling the many problems he’s helped exacerbate, Gavin Newsom would rather prioritize make-believe White House runs and tweet angrily about red states and Fox News. The last thing Newsom deserves after tearing California down is a promotion to the nation’s highest office.”
Access to abortion remains popular among voters across the political divide more than a year after Roe was struck down.
An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey released in July 2023 showed 73% of U.S. adults favored allowing abortions in the first six weeks. That figure rises to 88% among Democrats but drops to 70% among independents and 56% among Republicans.
Newsom has repeatedly denied he is running a shadow campaign for president in 2024 and emerged as one of Biden’s top surrogates on the campaign trail.
But his actions over the past year have failed to quell speculations about his future.
The California governor debated then-GOP presidential candidate Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) on Fox News in December. He showed up to the second Republican primary debate last fall, traveled to Israel in the immediate aftermath of the Oct. 7 surprise attacks from Hamas, and held a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Newsom also held a surprise meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a visit to Beijing in late October.
All of which has helped raise his national profile among voters.
Yet Jones, the Democratic strategist, also reiterated that Newsom is concerned about the well-being of women despite the White House speculation.
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The California governor approved $20 million in taxpayer money to help pay for women seeking abortions to travel to the Golden State, sparking GOP criticism.
“I reject the notion that quote ‘Oh, Gavin Newsom is only doing this because it will help him become president,’” Jones said. “No, Gavin Newsom is doing this because this is what the American people want their country to be. And if that is also a credit to his election to the presidency or winning the Democratic nomination, then so be it. More power to him.”
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