NY verdict highlights GOP’s limited options without Trump, say strategists.

Trump’s Civil Lawsuit Verdict Divides 2024 Republican Primary

The verdict of former President Donald Trump being found liable for sexual abuse and defamation in his civil lawsuit against onetime Elle columnist E. Jean Carroll has become a dividing line in the 2024 Republican primary, albeit a very light one.

Democrats vs. Republicans

While Democrats speculate that the Carroll case will help their party connect with independent women next year after the demographic tipped the midterm elections in their direction six months ago, Republicans contend the public backed Trump in 2016 despite the Access Hollywood video.

A New York jury finding for Carroll and awarding her $5 million will likely not have 2024 repercussions for the former president’s “true believers,” but “in the broader Republican world,” it reinforces “the collateral damage fear they have, even if unspoken, of another Trump candidacy,” according to ex-New Hampshire GOP Chairman Thomas Rath.

Noncrazy Contender

Former GOP Govs. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, a declared candidate, and Chris Christie of New Jersey, who will decide whether to announce a campaign in the next week, are hoping to become that “noncrazy” contender, most harshly criticizing Trump over the Carroll case.

“How many coincidences are we going to have here with Donald Trump?” Christie asked Fox News Radio’s Brian Kilmeade. “He must be the unluckiest S.O.B. in the world. He just has random people who he has never met before who are able to convince a jury that he sexually abused them. … I think we all know he’s not unlucky and that he engaged in this kind of conduct.”

“Over the course of my over 25 years of experience in the courtroom, I have seen firsthand how a cavalier and arrogant contempt for the rule of law can backfire,” Hutchinson added Tuesday. “The jury verdict should be treated with seriousness and is another example of the indefensible behavior of Donald Trump.”

Trump’s Base

“Practically nothing” could undermine Trump with his base, according to Claremont McKenna College politics professor John J. Pitney.

“Among general election voters, it is another in a long list of liabilities,” the former Republican aide said. “Under certain circumstances, he could win, but the case makes his climb a little steeper.”

Appeal Options

As Trump’s lawyers explore his appeal options, the former president, who took part in a CNN town hall Wednesday, shared a statement on social media and recorded a video in which he attacked U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan for being appointed by two-term President Bill Clinton and the jury, comprised of six men and three women, for being from “anti-Trump” New York, “the worst place in the United States for me to get a fair trial.”

• Former President Donald Trump found liable for sexual abuse and defamation in his civil lawsuit against onetime Elle columnist E. Jean Carroll.
• Democrats speculate that the Carroll case will help their party connect with independent women next year.
• Republicans contend the public backed Trump in 2016 despite the Access Hollywood video.
• Former GOP Govs. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas and Chris Christie of New Jersey are hoping to become the “noncrazy” contender.
• “Practically nothing” could undermine Trump with his base, according to Claremont McKenna College politics professor John J. Pitney.