Mike Johnson Snags Record-Breaking Fundraising Haul to Power Republicans Into Midterm Homestretch

Congressional Republicans have plenty of cash available to help spread their message before the midterm elections next month.

History shows that they will need it.

According to Axios, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson has secured a funding haul of $156 million this election cycle. Prior to Johnson, no Republican speaker or leader had raised that much money at this point in an election season.

“We are focused on getting unprecedented resources to the Districts that will decide the majority,” Johnson said in a statement to Axios.

“With this continued momentum,” he added, “we are in place to defy history and defend the House to save America from the far left!”

Republican success in the upcoming midterm elections would indeed “defy history.”

For perspective, the United States has held 20 midterm contests since World War II. The 21st will take place in less than a month. In that time, only Presidents Bill Clinton (1998) and George W. Bush (2002) saw their party gain seats in the House.

Moreover, in those two anomalous midterm elections, the sitting presidents had unusually high approval ratings. Clinton, amid an impeachment scandal, had surged to 65 percent approval in the final pre-election Gallup poll. Bush, meanwhile, enjoyed 67 percent approval in the final pre-election Gallup poll after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and before the 2003 Iraq War.

By contrast, in the other 18 midterm elections, the president’s party lost an average of 29 House seats.

Furthermore, even a popular president could not always save his own party. In 1986, for instance, Ronald Reagan’s 64 percent approval rating nonetheless translated into five lost House seats for Republicans.

Other presidents with final Gallup approval ratings north of 50 percent included Dwight Eisenhower in 1954 and 1958, John F. Kennedy in 1962, Richard Nixon in 1970 and 1974, and George W. Bush in 1990. In each case, the president’s party still lost House seats.

On the other hand, deeply unpopular presidents such as Barack Obama in 2014 (41 percent approval; only 13 seats lost) and Joe Biden in 2022 (40 percent approval; only nine seats lost) have sometimes staved off total disaster.

However, unpopular presidents — defined as presidents with approval ratings lower than 50 percent — have always lost House seats. Including Obama and Biden, those presidents have a record of 100 percent failure in midterm elections. They have lost, on average, more than 35 seats, “led” by Obama in 2010 (63 seats lost) and Clinton in 1994 (54 seats lost).

Gallup’s most recent poll, conducted in late August, gave President Donald Trump an approval rating of 33 percent.

The latest RealClearPolling aggregate of polls, on the other hand, shows Trump closer to 38 percent approval.

Either way, it appears that Trump will join George W. Bush in 2006 (37 percent) and Harry Truman in 1946 (27 percent) as the only presidents to enter a midterm election with approval ratings lower than 40 percent.

Thus, according to Axios, Johnson has already distributed $91 million to various GOP candidates and entities this cycle.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has received $46 million of that $91 million. Should Johnson continue at that pace, he will set a record for the largest-ever transfer of funds by a Republican speaker or leader to the NRCC.

As a result, by the end of August the NRCC had a record $13 million cash advantage over its counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Johnson and the GOP will need every penny if they hope to “defy history.”

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