Democrats are setting records of their own. Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has already raised more than $40 million, while Graham Platner, the presumptive Democratic nominee in Maine, has hauled in more than $16 million in his bid to unseat Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).

The spending surge extends beyond the Senate. Rep. Thomas Massie’s (R-KY) primary became the most expensive in history after outside groups and political organizations flooded the race with money. Outside groups spent more than $30 million on ads alone to oust Massie, who lost to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein.

With control of Congress likely to hinge on a handful of races, strategists in both parties expect campaign spending to reach unprecedented levels as November approaches.

Candidate quality

The 2026 election is shaping up to be another test of how much “candidate quality” matters to voters, and the answer could very well decide which party controls Congress next year.

Democrats are poised to nominate Graham Platner as their candidate for Senate in Maine despite a “sexting” scandal that has raised fresh doubts about his ability to defeat five-term incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME).

In Texas, Republicans have grudgingly embraced Ken Paxton after they tried, and failed, to prop up four-term incumbent Cornyn. Paxton has been dogged by corruption allegations and an affair that led to his 2023 impeachment in the Texas House.

The Paxton and Platner races are hardly the only ones hinging on voters’ willingness to overlook a candidate’s flaws. In the House, both parties are dealing with candidates accused of affairs, insider trading, and more.

Democrats flirt with going independent

Democrats searching for a path back into deeply Republican states are increasingly embracing a strategy that would have once been politically unthinkable: quietly sidelining their own nominees in favor of independent candidates they believe have a better shot at winning.

From Nebraska to Alaska to Montana, Democratic operatives and aligned groups are showing growing openness to candidates who avoid the Democratic label altogether, reflecting mounting concern inside the party that the brand itself has become toxic in some conservative states.

In Nebraska, Democratic officials have effectively aligned themselves with independent Dan Osborn rather than fully consolidating behind Democratic nominee Cindy Burbank, who has signaled she could eventually leave the race. Similar conversations are unfolding around independent Senate candidate Seth Bodnar in Montana and House candidate Bill Hill in Alaska.

The emerging playbook reflects a growing belief among some Democrats that, in states where Republicans dominate federal races, candidates may fare better running adjacent to the party rather than directly under its banner. But the strategy has exposed deep disagreements inside Democratic circles over whether the party should adapt to its brand problems in red states or work to repair them.

“It’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard,” Democratic strategist Michael Ceraso said of efforts by party-aligned groups to quietly boost independents while distancing themselves publicly from the Democratic label.

“If the human being themselves wants to not be associated with the Democratic Party, and they want to run as an independent, then run as an independent,” Ceraso said. “But please, to the Democratic Party, stop trying to be cute about it.”

Ceraso argued Democrats are overthinking the problem and focusing too heavily on branding rather than candidate quality and local engagement.

“Just tell donors you’re going to go into these communities to find the best candidates to run, and then go run them,” he said.

What the prediction markets say

Prediction markets are increasingly viewed as a real-time gauge of political sentiment. Unlike traditional polling, they aggregate real-money bets on political outcomes, often capturing shifts in sentiment quicker than surveys.

At this stage in the 2026 cycle, Kalshi gives Democrats an 79% chance of retaking the House, while Republicans have a 58% chance of keeping control of the Senate.

Meanwhile, Polymarket is slightly more bullish on Democrats, giving the party an 82% chance of retaking the House and a 54% chance of winning the Senate.