While Miller’s seat is labeled “likely Republican” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, the Democratic candidate, union ironworker Brian Poindexter, recently polled 8 points ahead of Miller, 54%-46%, despite President Donald Trump winning the Cleveland-area seat by 11 points in 2024.

“It’s not helpful that’s for sure,” a senior GOP strategist told the Washington Examiner when asked about Miller keeping the seat.

Republicans are on offense for two Ohio seats currently held by Democrats, but trouble in Miller’s seat could leave fewer resources for the pickup opportunities. Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH) sits in a seat labeled “lean Democrat,” as Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s (D-OH) seat is labeled a “toss up.” Both seats skew more Republican after the state redrew its map mid-decade.

But the Miller developments cast a cloud over a race that should have been a slam dunk for Republicans. In a recent poll, when voters were asked if they felt more positive or negative about Miller in light of the allegations, 65% said they felt more negative. 6% said they felt more positive and 29% said the allegations made no difference how they feel about him.

GOP operators downplayed the notion that Miller’s scandals could lead to a more competitive and expensive race, pointing to Democrats’ financial woes.

“It is a very Republican district, and we’ll see if Democrats actually have the resources to spend in addition in a Trump plus 11 district when they’re going to be on defense defending Marcy Kaptur and Greg Landsman, which are both Trump won districts in Ohio,” a GOP campaign operative told the Washington Examiner.

And while Miller’s baggage may make the seat a difficult lift, party leadership seems intent on backing him to the end.

“Listen, there’s not many things worse than divorce,” Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters said on NewsNation. “I hope Max and Ms. Moreno get the desired outcome they want. We’re gonna support our nominees.”

Ohio is already expected to be an expensive state for both parties with competitive Senate and gubernatorial races, so ad rates are expected to come at a premium cost in what’s going to be a saturated Cleveland media market. Moreover, any additional money spent on Miller’s district could ultimately pull from other already competitive races in Ohio and elsewhere.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is running again in what’s expected to be an expensive and competitive affair, lost Miller’s district by about 2 points.

House Majority PAC, which is affiliated with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), has reserved $1.2 million in Cleveland, which could be used for the nearby 13th District or Miller’s district. But the GOP has amassed a substantial cash advantage over Democrats, which includes $125 million on hand at the Republican National Committee and $400 million in Trump’s super PAC.

Miller is set to loan himself $1 million for his reelection effort, the Wall Street Journal recently reported.

The congressman won reelection in 2024 by about 13 points but with just 51% of the vote, as former Cleveland Mayor Dennis Kucinich ran an independent.

In a sign he may be bracing for a competitive race, Miller, in an interview with CNN, brandished his bipartisan credentials, highlighting support for two issues that might appeal to Democrats.

“I have worked so hard to represent and done a terrific job for our community … bringing back money for our district and standing up for the Ukrainian people and also voting to protect Obamacare during this entire time,” Miller told CNN’s Jake Tapper last week. “This is why no one’s attacking me on my policy.”

Miller has come under intense scrutiny as a bitter and public legal battle with Emily Moreno has played out. The New York Times detailed that she alleged that Miller “scalded her chest and stomach by throwing hot water from a skillet at her body; held a gun to her head; pushed her against a wall and hit her head; and fractured their daughter’s collarbone and bruised her shoulder.”

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Bernie Moreno broke his silence last week about his daughter’s experience with Miller and said he shouldn’t be in Congress.

“He is a danger to my daughter, and I hold my breath every minute he has custody of my granddaughter,” Moreno wrote on X. “If there are any basic standards of character required to hold elected office, Max Miller fails them. He should not serve in the House of Representatives.”