Leaked Roe Opinion Is Energizing Republicans More

New polling suggests Leftist hopes that the leaked draft indicating the Supreme Court might be preparing to overturn landmark abortion cases Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey would galvanize Democrats and send them to the polls in November may be premature.

To the contrary, a new CNN poll suggests that the leaked draft may not increase Democratic turnout in the fast-approaching midterms.

“The share of registered voters who say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall rose 6 points between the first survey and the second, but that increase is about even across party lines,” CNN reported. “Among Democrats, 43% now say they are extremely or very enthusiastic, up 7 points. Among Republicans, it’s 56%, up 9 points. And voters who say overturning Roe would make them ‘happy’ are nearly twice as enthusiastic about voting this fall as those who say such a ruling would leave them ‘angry’ (38% extremely enthusiastic among those happy, 20% among those angry).”

New CNN polling: Comparing pre- and post-polling, the draft opinion does not appear to have shaken the midterm landscape. https://t.co/eLlKUOlc7t

— Jennifer Agiesta (@jennagiesta) May 6, 2022

The poll also noted that a majority of Americans — 66% — say that Roe should not be entirely struck down and 59% would support federal legislation that established a right to abortion nationwide. But that may also be a doomed prospect, given the current makeup of Congress and the likelihood that Republicans will see gains rather than losses in November.

As soon as the early opinion draft leaked, people on both sides began to speculate about who might have leaked the draft and why.

Liberals suggested that a conservative clerk might have leaked the early opinion — which may or may not reflect the final decision the Court plans to render — in an effort to pressure the conservative justices to stand by that. Conversely, conservatives suggested that the leak probably came from a liberal clerk, hoping that public outcry might drive the court to change the decision, increase Democratic turnout in November’s midterm elections, or press President Joe Biden and the Democrat-controlled Congress to codify Roe and pack the Supreme Court before the final decision was announced.

Democrats have already called for Congress to codify Roe, and have even put forth the Women’s Health Protection Act — but with a 50/50 split in the Senate and Vice President Kamala Harris as the tie-breaker, such a measure cannot pass without every Democrat also voting to end the Senate filibuster or at least agree to a carve-out for this specific issue.

Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) has already said that he would not vote to end the filibuster in order to pass a federal law sustaining abortion rights — and without him, the Democrats’ only hope would be to win over Republicans like Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) who voiced disappointment in Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, saying that if they had voted to overturn Roe, that was “completely inconsistent” with the answers they gave on the subject during their confirmation hearings.

But Collins, who introduced her own measure to codify Roe with Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), has already the Democrats’ bill is “too broad” and makes no provisions for issues of conscience.

“It supersedes all other federal and state laws, including the conscience protections that are in the Affordable Care Act,” Collins explained. “It doesn’t protect the right of a Catholic hospital to not perform abortions. That right has been enshrined in law for a long time.”

Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) has voiced opposition for the Collins-Murkowski bill, arguing that it provides too many loopholes for states to continue to impose restrictions on abortions.