Kyrsten Sinema is facing one big problem after ditching the Democratic Party to run on her own
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s Departure from the Democratic Party Poses Fundraising Challenges
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) made a bold move by leaving the Democratic Party after the 2022 midterm elections to become an independent. While this decision aligned with her voting style in the Senate, it also came with consequences. One significant setback she faced was a decline in donors.
Since her departure from the Democrats, Sinema has realized that her financial allies are more aligned with the party than with her as a candidate. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), who is running against Sinema in 2024, has received a staggering $1.7 million from donors who previously supported Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in 2022. In contrast, Sinema has only received $205,500 from these same donors, according to a Politico analysis.
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To secure a second term in the Senate, Sinema will need to rely on supporters from all across the political spectrum. She must appeal to Democrats, independents, and even some Republicans to vote for her and contribute to her campaign.
“Her fundraising is somewhat dried up,” said Barrett Marson, an Arizona GOP operative. “There isn’t an independent donor base as there is a Republican donor base and a Democratic donor base.”
In the first nine months of 2023, Sinema raised $4.6 million, while Gallego’s campaign amassed nearly $10 million during the same period. This is a significant drop compared to Sinema’s fundraising success in her 2018 campaign, where she raised $7.1 million in the first nine months. Gallego managed to raise $691,000 thanks to Sinema’s biggest 2018 donors, while she only received $277,000 from the same group. Sinema’s overall campaign fundraising has declined by more than 20% each quarter in 2023, with $2.1 million in quarter one, $1.7 million in quarter two, and $825,900 in quarter three.
Although Sinema currently has a substantial war chest of $10.8 million, her drying fundraising may force her to explore alternative avenues to keep up with Gallego and other Republican challengers who are leading in polls.
“It wouldn’t surprise me that she would draw more from the Republicans than Democrats,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND), highlighting that Arizona is a “center-right state.” This scenario concerns him.
Sinema has managed to raise approximately $53,000 from donors who have also contributed to the super PAC arm of No Labels, as reported by Politico. Additionally, she shares eight donors with the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) that supports Senate GOP candidates.
Fundraising typically picks up closer to the election year, giving Sinema time to attract the attention of more significant and generous donors. However, her reluctance to indicate whether she will seek reelection in 2024 may contribute to donors’ hesitancy to contribute to her campaign. Furthermore, her departure from the Democratic Party has strained relationships with Democratic lawmakers and allies, especially after her opposition to key left-leaning policies in the Senate last year. As a result, securing endorsements from her colleagues in Congress may prove to be an uphill battle.
One potential solution for Sinema to bridge the fundraising gap is to receive contributions from super PACs, particularly those supported by wealthy donors. While she currently lacks such a super PAC, her pro-business record could enhance her chances with corporate donors.
A poll conducted by Public Policy Polling in October revealed that Gallego had a strong lead, receiving 41% of voter support compared to Republican Kari Lake’s 36%. Sinema trailed at 15% in a hypothetical three-way matchup, with 8% undecided. It’s important to note that Public Policy Polling is affiliated with the Democratic Party. In another poll, a two-way ballot without Sinema showed Gallego leading Lake by 3 points, 46% to 43%. However, with Sinema in the race, Lake held a slight advantage over Gallego, with Sinema receiving 15.4% compared to Lake’s 37% and Gallego’s 36.5%.
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What strategies can Sinema employ to attract support from conservative donors disillusioned with the Republican Party?
Ate.” Sinema may need to shift her strategy to attract support from more conservative donors who are disillusioned with the Republican Party.
In addition to fundraising challenges, Sinema’s departure from the Democratic Party has also affected her relationship with her former colleagues. Many Democrats feel betrayed and resentful of her decision. They believe that by leaving the party, she is undermining their efforts to pass key legislation and prioritize the party’s agenda.
However, Sinema’s decision to become an independent has allowed her to maintain her independent voting record in the Senate, as she pledged during her campaign. Her centrist approach has gained her both praise and criticism, with some viewing her as a refreshing voice of moderation and others as a political opportunist.
While Sinema’s departure from the Democratic Party may have posed fundraising challenges, it has also allowed her to position herself as a bipartisan problem solver, appealing to voters who are tired of extreme partisanship. By distancing herself from party labels, she may be able to attract more moderate voters who value bipartisanship and collaboration.
Conclusion
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s departure from the Democratic Party has undoubtedly posed fundraising challenges for her 2024 campaign. Her decision to become an independent has led to a decline in financial support from previous Democratic donors. However, Sinema still has a substantial war chest and may be able to attract support from conservative donors who are disenchanted with the Republican Party. Her centrism and independent voting record may also appeal to voters who are tired of hyperpartisanship. As Sinema navigates these challenges, it will be interesting to see how her fundraising strategies evolve and whether her departure from the Democratic Party will ultimately help or hinder her re-election efforts in 2024.
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