Key Virginia Congressional Contest a Battle of Who Supports Police More

As polls close on Nov. 8 and election night results unscroll east to west, eyes countrywide will be watching two Virginia congressional district races analysts say are bellwether contests presaging which party will win the day and control the U.S. House in 2023.

According to Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI), Virginia’s Congressional District 2 (CD 2) and CD 7 are among 22 congressional districts nationwide occupied by incumbent Democrats in fall races rated as “tossups.” 

The GOP has targeted the two commonwealth districts—and its underdog candidate is making a competitive run in a third—in its goal to flip the Virginia congressional delegation’s 7-4 Democratic majority into, at least, a 6-5 Republican advantage.

Doing so would also notch two of the five seats Republicans must gain on Nov. 8 to secure a Midterm majority in the U.S. House. That is why eyes will be watching as results in Virginia’s CD 2 and CD 7 unfold.

All 11 Virginia congressional incumbents are defending their seats in November. Eight of the sitting reps, including all four GOP House members, are expected to convincingly win additional two-year terms in the fall.

Democratic incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va,) speaks to a class of trade apprentices at the IBEW Local 26 Training Center in Northern Virginia during a recent campaign visit. (Courtesy of Abigail Spanberger for Congress)

Three Democrats, however, all two-term incumbents, face stiff challenges in bids to retain their seats in Congress. 

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) in CD 2 and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) in CD 7, are in projected nail-biters. GOP first-time candidate Hung Cao is, meanwhile, giving Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) cause to sweat in a CD 10 race she is expected to prevail in.

In CD 2, the nation’s ultimate “median” district, Luria, a retired U.S. Navy commander, faces Republican challenger state