Burgum’s Qualification for 3rd GOP Debate an Uphill Battle
Is Burgum the Next Dropout? Candidate Faces Uphill Battle to Qualify for 3rd GOP Debate
The shrinking field of Republican presidential candidates may soon become even smaller.
The next major GOP primary event is a debate in Miami on Wednesday, and one campaign has already admitted that its candidate has not yet reached the required polling numbers to earn a spot on the stage.
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, a former businessman, does not have the level of support needed in national or state polls to qualify for the debate.
Not appearing at the Miami debate could be a death blow for a campaign that was already a long shot to begin with.
Burgum did participate in the previous Republican debate held on Sept. 27 in California. However, his presence was largely overlooked.
Campaign spokesman Lance Trover told the New York Post that the North Dakota governor has not met the polling threshold of at least 4 percent support in either two national polls, or one national poll and two polls in the early nominating states.
Burgum would have to reach the benchmark of 4 percent in two states out of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
A Des Moines Register Iowa poll released Monday gave Burgum 3 percent support in the state — not good enough.
A national poll conducted by the Trafalgar Group in September put Burgum at 3.2 percent, tied with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie but behind former Vice President Mike Pence, who showed 3.8 percent support.
Of course, we now know how Pence’s campaign turned out. He suspended his quest for the Republican presidential nomination on Saturday.
Doug Burgum has officially lasted longer than the former Vice President of the United States. What a time to be alive.https://t.co/NpV8COfr2a
— Michael Knowles (@michaeljknowles) October 28, 2023
However, just because Burgum held on longer than Pence does not mean his campaign is succeeding — or will be able to compete much longer. The Republican debate process is designed to weed out candidates with low support.
Unless Burgum’s numbers rapidly increase, he will lose his opportunity to reach a national audience alongside the five other candidates who have made the cut: Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
If Burgum were to drop out, the question becomes who his followers might then support.
Larry Elder was another long-shot candidate before he withdrew from the race last month. When Elder suspended his campaign, he endorsed former President Donald Trump, whose polling numbers were already dominating the other candidates in the race.
Burgum could theoretically endorse another Republican and add his single digits of support to whichever candidate he sees as the best alternative.
The RealClearPolitics polling average Thursday showed Trump with 59.3 percent support followed by DeSantis at 13.4, Haley at 8.3, and Ramaswamy at 4.6. The rest of the field was below 3 percent.
If Burgum and the other marginal candidates decided to unite around one of the leading Trump challengers, it could shake up the GOP primary race.
However, that candidate would still face long odds, based on the current state of the race.
The post Is Burgum the Next Dropout? Candidate Faces Uphill Battle to Qualify for 3rd GOP Debate appeared first on The Western Journal.
How does Burgum’s current level of support compare to the required benchmark in Iowa?
Is Burgum the Next Dropout? Candidate Faces Uphill Battle to Qualify for 3rd GOP Debate
The Republican primary field has been narrowing down significantly, and it seems that it may soon become even smaller. With the upcoming GOP debate in Miami, one campaign has already acknowledged that its candidate has not yet met the required polling numbers to secure a spot on the stage.
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, a former businessman, lacks the necessary level of support in national and state polls to qualify for the debate. Not being able to participate in the Miami debate could deal a severe blow to a campaign that was already considered a long shot to begin with.
Burgum did take part in the previous Republican debate held on September 27 in California, but his presence was largely overshadowed. Campaign spokesman Lance Trover stated that the North Dakota governor has not reached the polling threshold of at least 4 percent support in either two national polls or one national poll and two polls in the early nominating states.
To qualify, Burgum would have to achieve a benchmark of 4 percent support in two states out of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. However, a recent Des Moines Register Iowa poll gave Burgum only 3 percent support in the state, which falls short of the required threshold. Furthermore, a national poll by the Trafalgar Group in September showed Burgum at 3.2 percent, tied with former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie but behind former Vice President Mike Pence, who had 3.8 percent support.
Importantly, Pence’s campaign ultimately suspended, highlighting the challenges low-ranking candidates face. The Republican debate process is specifically designed to identify candidates with low support. Unless Burgum’s numbers experience a rapid increase, he is likely to lose the opportunity to reach a national audience alongside the five qualifying candidates: Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
If Burgum were to drop out, the question emerges about which candidate his followers might then support. Larry Elder, another long-shot candidate, withdrew from the race last month and endorsed former President Donald Trump. Trump’s polling numbers were already dominant among the other candidates in the race. Burgum could potentially endorse another Republican candidate and contribute his single-digit support to the preferred alternative.
The RealClearPolitics polling average on Thursday showed Trump with 59.3 percent support, followed by DeSantis at 13.4 percent, Haley at 8.3 percent, and Ramaswamy at 4.6 percent. The rest of the field fell below 3 percent.
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