April saw a 4.4% increase in inflation, as per the Fed’s important measure.

Unexpected Rise in Inflation

Inflation unexpectedly rose to a 4.4% annual rate in April, as measured by the gauge favored by the Federal Reserve.

The rise in inflation in the personal consumption expenditures price index reported Friday morning by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is an unwelcome sign that price pressures are not yet abating in the face of the Fed’s campaign to slow price gains by hiking interest rates.

WHITE HOUSE NOT BUDGING ON WORK REQUIREMENTS, CAUSING AN IMPASSE IN NEGOTIATIONS

Inflation is running much hotter than the central bank’s target and damaging household purchasing power. Friday’s numbers were a surprise for economists and analysts, who predicted inflation would fall for another month. The consensus was that it would tick down to 3.9%.

Core PCE inflation, a measure of inflation that strips out energy and food prices and is generally less volatile, clocked in at a 4.7% year-over-year rate.

• Other recent measures of inflation have shown prices are continuing to fall back to Earth from the highs notched last year, which marked the country’s worst inflationary plague in decades.
• Earlier this month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced inflation fell slightly to 4.9% in the year ending in April in an update to the consumer price index, the lowest such rate since May 2021.
• In addition, inflation plunged to a 2.3% annual rate in March, as measured by the producer price index — the lowest level in more than two years.

But the new numbers for the PCE index will likely push the Fed further in the direction of more tightening.

Investors React to the News

The Fed this month hiked interest rates again by a modest degree, a quarter of a percentage point, despite growing uncertainty in the banking sector following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March.

The Fed’s target rate is now sitting at 5% to 5.25%, the highest it has been since the financial crisis in 2008. Prior to Friday’s report, a majority of investors expected the central bank to keep rates steady at its next meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which calculates the probability using futures contract prices for rates in the short-term market targeted by the Fed.

The dynamic has now shifted. Investors are putting the odds of another rate hike at nearly 53%, showing just how much certain reports can change the trajectory of the Fed.

While the hotter-than-expected PCE numbers raise the odds of another rate revision, many economists are still cautious to predict one given that other indicators, including the minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, point to a pause.

“Stubbornly high inflation, particularly core inflation, may lead the FOMC to raise the federal funds rate again at their meeting on June 13 and 14,” PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher said. “The minutes from the FOMC’s previous meeting, in early May, suggested that the committee could keep the fed funds rate in its current range of 5.00% to 5.25% in June.”

What’s Next?

The inflation news comes a day after the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised up its estimate for first-quarter GDP growth to a 1.3% annual rate from an estimated 1.1%.

Despite the uncertainty, Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said, “We will be sticking with the forecast for the Fed to keep rates unchanged through the remainder of this year. However, odds are rising that we will be altering the forecast for the fed funds rate in 2024, reducing the number of rate cuts.”

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER