Indiana Republican primary triggers significant leadership changes in the state of Indiana

In deep red Indiana, where the top offices are held by Republican politicians, this election cycle is set to bring a new wave of leadership from the governor’s mansion to the halls of Congress.

Voters in Indiana will head to the polls on Tuesday to participate in their primaries, which will include a six-way primary for governor and crowded races for several open congressional seats, in what has become a game of political musical chairs. The number of open races has driven a historic number of GOP contenders.

“In recent political memory, it’s unlike anything we’ve seen before,” said Laura Merrifield Wilson, an associate professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis.

“Quite frankly, it’s good for the political parties too because they are looking to develop deep benches for future opportunities. So, I think it is to our advantage as a democracy to have so many candidates seeking election,” she added in an interview with the Washington Examiner.

By November, more than half of the Hoosier State’s congressional delegation could be brand new after Reps. Larry Buschon (R-IN) in District 8 and Greg Pence (R-IN) in District 6 are retiring and Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) in District 3 is set to succeed Sen. Mike Braun in the upper chamber, who is running for governor. In addition, Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), in District 5 appears to be vulnerable after initially making an announcement that she wouldn’t seek reelection, but reversing that decision ahead of the filing deadlines. Here are all the races to watch.

Outside groups have targeted Indiana races with so much cash that three of the federal primary races have become some of the most expensive contests nationwide.

According to Open Secrets, Indiana District 8, District 3, and the Senate race are in the top ten most pricey contests nationwide.

“There’s a lot of outside money coming in, so it tells you it’s not just Hoosiers that are interested in who’s going to represent them in Washington D.C. in January, but there’s a lot of people that see these as potential seats to really use to perpetuate their own interests and ideas,” Wilson said.

Race for new Indiana governor

Six Republicans are facing off to be the Republican nominee for governor, where current GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb is term-limited after serving eight years in office. Holcomb announced he wouldn’t be endorsing anyone in the race.

The field includes freshman Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN), who has the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, former State Attorney General Curtis Hill, former state economic official Eric Doden, and conservative activist Jamie Reitenour.

Indiana’s airwaves have been blanketed in ads – with the six Republicans projected to spend about $40 million by election day, which is a record amount of campaign spending in an Indiana primary. Braun spent $6 million in the first three months of the year. Crouch, Chambers, and Doden spent $14 million together.

There have been limited polling numbers, but Braun has consistently led his closest opponent by 20 to 30 points. The winner of the primary will face former Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction Jennifer McCormick, who is the only Democratic candidate. Indiana hasn’t elected a Democrat to any statewide office in 12 years.

“Braun has the most name recognition, he’s been on the airwaves quite a bit. The limited polling we have, has shown Braun leading consistently and I just have a hard time believing something can change there last minute, which of course it could, but I’m not convinced it will,” Wilson said.

Open Senate seat

Republicans have coalesced behind Rep. Jim Banks (R-IN) after Braun announced he would run for governor. Banks will face either psychologist Valerie McCray or former state representative Marc Carmichael in November.

Indiana’s First Congressional District: GOP wants to flip seat

Republicans are once again working to defeat Rep. Frank Mrvan (D-IN) in northwest Indiana, which has trended more red over the last decade. Businessman Mark Leyva is running against Lake County Councilman Randy Niemeyer and business owner David Ben Ruiz. The Cook Political Report ranks the race as Lean Democrat.

Third Congressional District: Race to succeed Jim Banks

Based in Fort Wayne, this district in the northeastern part of the state has a crowded primary to succeed Bank’s seat. The race includes Tim Smith, who leads a “Christ-center family services provider,” according to his campaign website, former Allen County Circuit Court Judge Wendy Davis, state Sen. Andy Zay, and former Rep. Marlin Stutzman. The race also includes construction project manager Grant Bucher, veteran and congressional staffer Jon Kenworthy, manufacturing worker Eric Whalen, and maintenance technician Mike Felker.

Smith has received the most in campaign contributions, raising $1.3 million per FEC data. However, Smith loaned himself $1.1 million.

Fifth Congressional District: Spartz battles ‘self-inflicted wound’

Spartz’s initial decision to retire set off a crowded primary and one of the most expensive campaigns this cycle. She ultimately decided to run and is fighting for her political life.

Spartz is facing State Rep. Chuck Goodrich, businessman and speech pathologist, Raju Chinthala, Max Engling, attorney Mark Hurt, CPA Patrick Malayter, Matthew Peiffer, Larry Savage, and veteran L.D. Powell. Recent polling averages show a close race between Spartz and Goodrich.

“Theoretically, it’s an incumbent running for re-election in what has been drawn as a very safe Republican district, but you also have very strong competition,” Wilson said. “I think in that case, whether or not she maintains that office is a self-inflicted wound quite frankly, to retire and then go out of retirement, but it makes that particular race very exciting too because now it’s not an open seat at all.”

Sixth Congressional District: Pence retirement opens door

Pence, the brother of former Indiana Gov. and Vice President Mike Pence, announced he would not be seeking re-election. Seven Republicans made the ballot to take over the safe GOP district.

The race includes wealthy businessman Jefferson Shreve, state Rep. Mike Speedy, state Sen. Jeff Raatz, state Rep. John Jacob, Jamison Carrier, Wayne County Republican Darin Childress, and businessman Bill Frazier. The winner will face Democrat Cynthia Wirth, who is running unopposed.

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Eighth Congressional District: Crowded GOP primary

Rep. Larry Buschon announced he was leaving his safe Republican seat in early January. The race to replace him has drawn 14 candidates in southwestern Indiana.

Candidates include John Hostettler, who represented the district from 1995 until 2007, state Sen. Mark Messmer, Jim Case, Dominick Kavanaugh, who worked on Trump’s campaign and in his administration, Luke Misner, and surgeon Richard Moss. Other candidates include Kristi Risk, who chairs the Owen County Republican Party, Erik Hurt, Veteran Peter Priest II, musician Edward Upton Sein, and school bus driver Michael Tararzyk.