Trump leads GOP field in early endorsements, ahead of DeSantis by 72-5.

Trump Leads in Endorsements, DeSantis Lags Behind

Former President Donald Trump has galloped to an early lead in the endorsement sweepstakes—bigly, as he might say.

Some fans of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis worry that he hurt his chances because he had not yet declared his candidacy as of May 3. Many believe DeSantis would have entered the race sooner if not for Florida’s resign-to-run law, which lawmakers have worked to adjust, presumably to accommodate a DeSantis presidential run.

In the meantime, Trump has gobbled up endorsements like a political Pac-Man, even in DeSantis’ home state.

Trump’s Endorsements

• 11 Florida congressmen, including Republican Reps. Matt Gaetz, Greg Steube, and rising star Byron Donalds
• 49 House members—about one-fourth of the Republican total—have announced they’re supporting Trump, according to BallotPedia.org
• 10 U.S. senators, plus the governors of West Virginia and South Carolina
• 72 total endorsements

DeSantis, on the other hand, has only secured the endorsement of Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Brandon) and has a total of 5 endorsements.

Endorsements “have proven to be pretty predictive of who wins presidential nominating contests,” political gurus at FiveThirtyEight.com say. Since 1972, endorsements have outperformed political polls as accurate predictors of presidential nominees, says the site, whose name derives from the total U.S. electoral college votes, 538.

Based on FiveThirtyEight’s unique scoring system, which gives more weight to prominent endorsers, Trump racked up 244 endorsement points as of May 1. The next-closest possible contender, DeSantis, trailed far behind with only 13 points.

Despite the importance of endorsements, money, momentum, and messaging may matter more. And the power of being an incumbent leader also cannot be discounted—a factor on both sides during the 2024 presidential campaign.

Nonpartisan political analyst Nathan Gonzales, publisher of InsideElections.com, points out that President Joe Biden wields the power of the incumbency. But, in effect, so does Trump.

As the GOP’s two-time nominee, Trump remains the Republicans’ de facto leader.

“One of the complications to this cycle is that Biden and Trump are overshadowing the race in a way that is keeping so many people on the sidelines,” Gonzales said. “Typically, we would have a lot more candidates in on the Republican side than we do now.”

Because DeSantis is not the incumbent, “he can’t afford to wait too long” before announcing his candidacy, Gonzales said. “He has to draw a contrast with Trump, and he has to build his base of support. That can be done with a lot of money, and the governor appears to be able to raise a considerable amount.”

Despite the importance of endorsements, Gonzales and Carol Swain, a former politics professor at Vanderbilt and Princeton universities, agree that some endorsers are dragging their feet for fear of being targeted and harassed for endorsing DeSantis over Trump.

“I’ve seen situations where people endorse too early,” Swain said. “They endorsed a candidate for the House or the Senate, and little was known about that person, and then later, especially toward the end of the campaign, a lot of negative information will come out.”

Endorsements can be a double-edged sword, but early endorsements could give a candidate a critical edge. “If it looks like they’re going to win, then probably they gain endorsements,” Gonzales said.

Trump’s base remains fiercely loyal, and Republican politicians who are lukewarm on Trump or are secretly anti-Trump may not want to come out and endorse an opponent of his, Gonzales said. “They don’t want to anger Trump and lose an opportunity to gain his supporters,” he said.

Swain and Gonzales said they think Trump made a mistake by attacking DeSantis too much. Trump’s endorsement helped propel DeSantis to victory during his first gubernatorial campaign, but DeSantis also benefited from appearing on Fox News, which benefited him with that Republican-heavy TV audience, Gonzales said.

“Trump rose to power with a populist message, trying to be the voice for people who felt like they didn’t have a voice anymore,” Gonzales said.