GOP nears crucial WV Senate seat held by Manchin.

Republicans are determined to overturn the Democrats’ 51-49 advantage in the Senate, and their focus is on West Virginia in 2024.

This mostly rural state, where natural gas and coal are still prominent industries, will be in the spotlight. The Cook Political Report considers the Senate race here as one of the few toss-ups in 2024. Inside Elections rates it as a “battleground,” and Sabato’s Crystal Ball says it “leans Republican.”

Sen. Joe Manchin’s Future

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is up for reelection. He is the only Democrat who holds statewide office in a state that has shifted from blue to robust red.

Manchin, 75, said he will announce his 2024 intentions by the end of the year. Speculation indicates he could pursue reelection or run for president as an independent or a third-party candidate.

Earlier this year, he said, “everything is on the table” regarding 2024.

Jim Justice Enters the Race

Last week, West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice entered the Republican Senate primary, which includes Rep. Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.)

Justice, 72, has the backing of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

Mooney, 51, received endorsements from the conservative Club for Growth PAC, Gun Owners of America, and lawmakers that included Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)

Justice’s recruitment reflects the NRSC’s commitment to a greater hands-on approach to 2024 after the party’s results in the 2022 midterm elections.

“Jim Justice is a proven winner whose record of creating jobs, cutting taxes, and fighting for conservative values has made him one of the most popular governors in the country,” NRSC Chairman Steve Daines said in a statement.

Justice made his fortune from farming and his family’s coal mining operations. He announced his candidacy for the Senate race at his Greenbrier Resort in White Sulphur Springs. He criticized President Joe Biden and spoke about abortion and gun control among other issues.

Justice, who was a Democrat when he took office as governor in 2016 but switched to the Republican party in 2017, is known for his exuberant, folksy persona. He brings his English bulldog, Babydog, to major events.

In December 2021, when Manchin said he couldn’t support Biden’s Build Back Better legislation, entertainer Bette Midler tweeted that West Virginia is “horrible” and that Manchin “wants us all to be just like his state, West Virginia. Poor, illiterate, and strung out.”

From a podium during his State of the State address a month later, Justice pointed his beloved canine’s rear end at the camera and said that Midler could kiss Babydog’s “hiney” for insulting West Virginians.

The room full of legislators responded with a rousing standing ovation.

“God bless you,” Justice said. “I told you I’d make you smile.”

In backing Justice’s bid, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), an ally of former President Donald Trump, said the governor would be a more electable candidate than some Trump-backed Republicans who lost pivotal midterm races.

“We made mistakes in 2022,” Graham said, hinting at Herschel Walker’s loss in Georgia and Mehmet Oz’s defeat in Pennsylvania. “We maybe didn’t nominate the right person for the state they were running in. I promise you, Jim Justice is the right person for West Virginia.”

Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) is also backing Justice and told the Greenbrier audience, “I think we’re really gonna make a good pair in Washington.”

West Virginia’s Red State Transition

West Virginia’s rapid move from blue to red started in 2014, when the GOP took control of both state legislative