If RFK Jr. becomes independent, who benefits: Biden or Trump?
Democrats Concerned Over Potential Third-Party Presidential Campaign
Democrats are once again facing worries about a third-party presidential campaign, but this time it’s coming from within their own party. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who was never fully embraced by the Democratic camp, is considering a switch from Democrat to independent for his presidential campaign. This decision could pose a new headache for President Joe Biden.
A campaign staffer revealed that Kennedy’s party affiliation switch will be announced on October 9th in Philadelphia. Leading up to this announcement, Kennedy’s team plans to launch “attack ads” against the Democratic National Committee, intensifying the conflict between the candidate and the organization.
Democrats generally have concerns about third-party campaigns, as they believe such campaigns are more likely to draw support away from a Democratic candidate rather than a Republican one. The DNC is particularly worried about potential bids from Cornel West of the Green Party and the emergence of a campaign from No Labels.
These concerns may be justified. John Fortier, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, previously stated that while there is talk of disaffected “Never Trump” Republicans supporting an independent candidate, such voters are rare outside of highly educated circles within the Beltway.
Fortier explained, “The people more likely to switch to a third party are less well educated, less interested in politics, not these upscale, socially liberal and fiscally conservative people.”
Regarding Kennedy specifically, Fortier believes it is difficult to predict which major party candidate would benefit from his campaign. ”On the one hand, he is a Democrat with a famous name,” Fortier said. “But he is clearly of more interest today to voters on the right. However, it is not clear that Republican-leaning voters who like RFK Jr. might not also like Trump just as much and would not want to waste a Trump vote.”
Kennedy has surprisingly garnered a significant amount of polling support among Democrats, reaching 20% earlier this year according to the RealClearPolitics average. However, his campaign argues that he is more popular among potential Trump supporters, which may influence his decision to run as an independent.
“One of the most effective DNC slurs against Bobby Kennedy has been that his candidacy will help Trump win,” Kennedy’s spokesman Tony Lyons stated in a recent news release. “The opposite is true. Kennedy is taking more votes from Trump than from Biden, according to this poll as well as a recent YouGov poll.”
The release highlighted a poll showing Kennedy with 19% support, while Biden and Trump each had 38%.
Last month, Kennedy parked a campaign camper outside the Pray Vote Stand conference in Washington, D.C., which featured GOP presidential candidates Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ron DeSantis, and Trump, attracting mostly conservative attendees.
Challenges of Running an Independent Campaign
Running an independent campaign would present numerous challenges for Kennedy. He would need to secure ballot access in each state and may struggle to obtain sufficient funding.
Fortier also argues that despite their weaknesses, Biden and Trump are likely to drive voters to align with one of them due to their polarizing images.
“Even reluctant Biden voters would realize that casting a vote for someone other than Biden would effectively be a vote for Trump,” he explained.
However, in a close election, every vote counts. Some have pointed to the 2000 election, claiming that Green Party nominee Ralph Nader cost Al Gore votes in Florida and ultimately handed the election to George W. Bush.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon remains unconcerned about Kennedy’s potential impact on the race. He believes Kennedy is unlikely to be a significant factor, stating, “Jr. doesn’t have enough standing to impact the race one way or another. At least Cornel West has a base, as small as it is. Kennedy failed to carve out a niche within the Democratic Party and failed. He awaits the same fate as an independent. His vanity project will end in his own embarrassment.”
What steps is the Democratic Party taking to dissuade Kennedy from running as an independent and how are they trying to maintain unity within the party
At he is too conservative for the Democratic Party,” said a campaign spokesperson. “He has always been committed to environmental causes and social justice, but his positions on certain issues, such as vaccines and energy, have made some Democrats uncomfortable. Running as an independent would allow him to reach a wider audience and truly represent the values he believes in.”
While Kennedy’s potential third-party campaign may cause concern among Democrats, some political experts argue that it could have unintended consequences for Republicans as well. Matt Mackowiak, a Republican strategist, stated, “If Kennedy runs as an independent and gains significant support, it could split the conservative vote and potentially lead to a Democratic victory. This is a risk that Republicans should take into account.”
The Democratic Party, recognizing the potential impact of a third-party campaign, is actively working to mitigate any damage. Party officials have reportedly reached out to Kennedy in an attempt to dissuade him from running as an independent. They have offered him prominent speaking slots at the Democratic National Convention and the opportunity to shape the party’s platform.
In addition, the DNC has vowed to focus on unity and emphasize the common goals of all Democrats, regardless of ideological differences. They hope that by presenting a united front, they can discourage any potential defectors and rally the party around President Biden’s agenda.
Despite the concerns and efforts, the possibility of a third-party campaign remains a looming threat for Democrats. As the political landscape continues to evolve and voters seek alternatives to the two major parties, it becomes increasingly difficult for parties to maintain control over their base. The rise of independent candidates, like Kennedy, represents a challenge to the established party system and a test of its ability to adapt and appeal to an evolving electorate.
Only time will tell how influential Kennedy’s potential campaign will be and whether it will significantly impact the Democratic Party’s chances in future elections. However, what is clear is that the specter of a third-party challenge is once again haunting Democrats, reminding them of the need to unite and engage with all factions of their party to secure electoral success.
" Conservative News Daily does not always share or support the views and opinions expressed here; they are just those of the writer."
*As an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases
