Stormy Pacific, gloomy Atlantic: Hurricane season 2023.
The 2023 Hurricane Season: A Midway Update
The 2023 hurricane season is currently at its halfway mark, and it has brought some surprising developments. Contrary to expectations, the Pacific storms have had a greater impact on the United States compared to the Atlantic storms. With recent tropical storms hitting California and Texas, all eyes are now on the second half of the hurricane season in both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Let’s take a closer look at what we can expect for the remainder of this season, which runs until November 30.
Atlantic
Although the first named storm, Tropical Storm Arlene, formed in May before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, it wasn’t until August 22 that the first storm made landfall in the U.S. This storm, Tropical Storm Harold, hit Texas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initially predicted a “near-normal” season, with a 40% chance of it being normal. However, on August 10, they updated their forecast to a 60% chance of an “above-normal” season.
The NOAA now predicts that there will be 14-21 named storms and 6-11 hurricanes in the Atlantic. These hurricanes are defined by sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. Matthew Rosencrans, the lead hurricane season forecaster for NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, stated, “The main climate factors expected to influence the 2023 Atlantic hurricane activity are the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season.”
So far, there have been eight named storms and nine storms that have reached tropical storm strength in the Atlantic Basin this year.
Pacific
In May, the NOAA predicted an “above-normal” season for the central Pacific hurricane region, anticipating more activity compared to recent years. Their predictions indicated a 50% chance of an “above-normal” season. Chris Brenchley, the director of NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center, warned, “The last few hurricane seasons have been pretty quiet around Hawaii, luring some folks to let their guard down. Now it’s looking like this season will be more active than the past several years.”
Indeed, the Pacific season has had a significant impact on the U.S., surpassing expectations. Hawaii and California have borne the brunt of the storms this year. Hurricane Dora’s heavy winds worsened wildfires on the Hawaiian island of Maui, resulting in over 100 deaths and widespread devastation. Additionally, Tropical Storm Hilary made landfall in Southern California, leading to a tropical storm warning and heavy rainfall.
The Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and will officially conclude on November 30.
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