‘Huge Economic Impact’: Here’s How Much Lockdowns Could Cost Students In Lifetime Earnings

Learning from learning losses school lockdowns A new study has found that students affected by the loss of critical skills could see their lifetime earnings drop to between 2% and 9.9%.

The most recent National Assessment of Educational Progress showed Average reading scores for nine year-olds dropped five points and average mathematics scores fell seven points. This is the first score drop in reading in 30 years and the first in the history for the initiative. Eric Hanushek, a Stanford University economist and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, used the results to create a new study. study To approximate the state-by-state effects of worsened education outcomes

“The pandemic has had devastating effects in many areas, but none are as potentially severe as those on education,” The analysis was noted. “There is overwhelming evidence that students in school during the closure period and during the subsequent adjustments to the pandemic are achieving at significantly lower levels than would have been expected without the pandemic.”

Output growth depends upon the quality of a state’s labor force, especially in the United States, where the economy “rewards skills more than almost all other developed countries.” This reality also implies that the economy “punishes those without skills more than other countries.”

The study found that the average American student who is affected by school lockdowns will lose 5.6% of their lifetime earnings. Oklahoma has the highest lifetime income loss at 9%, while Utah’s is only 2%. The most affected students are the most affected. “disadvantaged students” Who “tended to fare worse” According to the study, school closures occurred during these times.

Similar calculations show that state economies could see a decline of 0.6% to 2.9% in economic output over the next century, compared to the baseline. National output losses will average 1.9% of gross national product. California, the US’s largest state, could see a $1.3 trillion loss. However, the learning losses suffered by students in California were the lowest in the nation.

“Because the affected students are in school and have yet to enter the labor force, the immediate impact on the states’ economies is zero,” According to the study. “And, because the impact is not felt until these students finish school, enter the labor force, and become a substantial part of the labor force, people are prone to ignore the real impact. That is a mistake, because the economic impact is truly significant.”

According to the Hoover Institution, similar studies were done by leading economists. An analysis by the Hoover Institution found that economic disruptions caused primarily by lockdowns can cost between $128 billion-$188 billion each year. estimate McKinsey & Company consults while a study from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School concluded that learning losses would reduce gross domestic product by 3.6% over the next three decades.

Parents are concerned about the effects of education lockdowns and have taken their children out of government schools. unprecedented rate. According to the National Homeschool Association, American households opted to homeschool their children from 5.4% to 11.1% in the spring 2020. data Census Bureau.