Approaching a Dual-Incumbent Election

Americans are about to ‌face a choice between two​ incumbent presidents. The idea sounds oxymoronic: a political version‍ of the Pauli Exclusion Principle in physics, whereby two particles cannot occupy the same space at once.​ Yet that is precisely ⁤the situation—barring an act ‍of ⁢God or the Obamas—in which we will ‌soon find ​ourselves.

There hasn’t been a two-incumbent election since 1892. That year, Republican president Benjamin Harrison faced⁤ the man whom he had defeated four years earlier: Democrat Grover Cleveland.

The 1888 election that had brought ⁢Harrison to ‌power was unusual. There had ⁣been a split between the Electoral College and⁤ the popular ​vote, and despite his loss, ​Cleveland earned more votes ‌than he’d‌ won in victory in 1884.

The⁣ rematch in 1892 was a different story. By then, voters ‌had tired of⁤ the inflationary⁢ effects of​ GOP protectionism. They returned Cleveland to office for a‌ nonconsecutive second term.

In‌ 2024, Donald Trump wants to play Cleveland to President Joe Biden’s Harrison. Trump, like ⁤Cleveland, won more votes losing in 2020 than he did winning in 2016. He, like Cleveland, leads‍ a party whose geographic base⁤ is the South. And he, like Cleveland, has⁣ five‍ children. The similarities—at least​ as I can count them—end there.

The precedent of 1892 is so distant that‌ it hardly seems relevant. Our two-incumbent election ⁢is⁤ a genuine novelty. It pits a ⁤twice-impeached, criminally charged Republican against a deeply unpopular Democrat who faces his own impeachment inquiry and whose adult son is under federal indictment. All set against the backdrop of collapsing public trust,⁢ deteriorating world order,​ resurgent anti-Semitism, ‍the interpenetration ⁢of the judicial system with ​domestic elections, myriad connections⁤ between former and ‍current​ national⁢ security personnel ‌and the​ major media “echo chamber,” America’s aggressive and cunning strategic adversaries, the legitimation of political violence, and a likelihood of constitutional crisis and domestic unrest. Harrison-Cleveland was placid by comparison. Even boring.

The two incumbents in 2024 have dominated the ⁣invisible primary. Trump has run not as if he were another⁢ run-of-the-mill contestant, but as if‍ he currently⁢ held⁢ office and could ⁤claim⁣ the Republican nomination by ​right. None of his‍ rivals have come close to his leads in either state or national polls. His risky decision not to appear on the debate stage looks,‍ in retrospect, like a political masterstroke. Above all, Trump’s legal​ troubles caused Republicans⁤ to rally to his side. The charges confirmed, in the eyes​ of his supporters, that the ⁢system is rigged against them. The GOP ⁢primary could be over in three weeks.

Nor does Biden face a serious primary threat. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. decided to run‌ as an independent, leaving Biden with massive leads over author Marianne Williamson,‌ who garners 8 percent in national polls, and congressman Dean ​Phillips (Minn.), who is at 3 percent. Phillips, ⁣who is earnest‍ and likable, says he ‍is running ‍because Joe Biden cannot win a general election.

And Phillips may be right. If‍ this​ were a one-incumbent race that‍ pitted Biden against a fresh Republican,⁤ Biden would be on his way to a landslide ⁣defeat. He begins 2024 with the lowest approval‍ ratings of any modern president. Voters say that‍ he is too‌ old for the job, that things are “out ⁣of control,” and that he ‍has made their lives worse.⁣ The Biden campaign has spent⁢ tens of millions⁤ of ‌dollars in⁤ television ‍advertising ‌across swing states to⁣ counter these negative attitudes. The​ ads have had no effect. On the contrary: Biden’s position has worsened. Core Democratic constituencies—Hispanic voters, black voters, and 18- to 35-year-old voters—have turned against him.

Yet Biden has a chance. The Democratic coalition may be fracturing, but its​ pieces are not joining the GOP. Instead, disaffected Democrats are saying that they will ⁢stay home or that they will support RFK Jr. or Cornel West—if ⁣either man makes it onto state ⁤ballots.

Normally, a⁣ splintered electorate and a collapse in enthusiasm for the incumbent benefits the challenger. Not when the challenger ⁢is another incumbent.⁣ Not when that other incumbent is Donald Trump. The former​ president may be ahead, but his lead is narrow ‌and within the margin of error.

Pollster Bill McInturff found​ that, unlike⁢ recent presidential contests, 2024 will be ‍more about ⁢the challenger than the incumbent. In 2004, 61 percent of voters said ‌their votes were more about George W. Bush than John⁤ Kerry. In 2012, 66 percent said their votes were more about Barack Obama than Mitt Romney. The 2020 ‌election was more‌ about Trump than about Biden,‌ who ‌was in his‍ basement. And yet⁢ 57 percent of voters say ​their⁢ vote in 2024 will be more⁣ about Trump than ​about President Biden.

That is ⁤why Biden plans ​to campaign on the anniversary of January 6 at Valley Forge, where he will deliver a speech attacking Trump as a threat to democracy. That is ⁤why ⁣Biden and Democrats plan to campaign ⁣just as they have in every election since 2016: portraying Trump and the MAGA movement as extremists bent on depriving the electorate of benefits,‍ from guaranteed health insurance to abortion rights. It’s worked before—in 2018, 2020, ​and 2022.

Will it work again? Don’t look at me. I’m buying gold ​and MREs.⁢ Because in a two-incumbent ⁣election, nothing is guaranteed.