How California’s vulnerable Republicans fared during primary
LOS ANGELES — California voters on Tuesday took the first step in what could become the most consequential House battleground fights in the country, casting ballots in five newly redrawn congressional districts that Democrats view as critical to their effort to reclaim the chamber.
The races are unfolding against the backdrop of California’s top-two primary system, which sends the two highest vote-getters to the general election regardless of party. That structure has left both parties closely watching whether their preferred candidates can survive crowded primary fields and advance to November.
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Democrats have high hopes in the five districts that were redrawn last year after Proposition 50, a controversial ballot initiative backed by Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) and state Democrats, passed. The measure reconfigured the state’s congressional districts to give Democrats an advantage ahead of the midterm elections. The outgoing governor, who is term-limited and widely expected to run for president in 2028, had framed the fight as one for the very soul of democracy.
Because California accepts and counts large numbers of mail-in ballots after Election Day, final results were not immediately available. Several of the closely watched contests remained undecided Wednesday afternoon as election officials continued tabulating votes.
Still, early returns suggested Democrats were on track to advance candidates in the districts they have targeted most aggressively, preserving their opportunity to compete in a set of races expected to draw national attention and millions of dollars in spending before November. However, in the 6th Congressional District’s race, there remains the possibility of a Democratic shutout.
The five California House Republicans targeted by last year’s redistricting effort were the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa and Rep. Kevin Kiley in Northern California, Reps. Darrell Issa and Ken Calvert in Southern California, and Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley.
The political landscape has shifted significantly since the maps were reshaped. LaMalfa died in office; Kiley left the Republican Party to become an independent (though he still votes Republican), Issa retired, and Calvert opted to run in a different district against a fellow Republican incumbent. That leaves Valadao as the lone remaining GOP target from the original group, facing what is expected to be a difficult reelection campaign in a district where national Democrats have already begun investing heavily.
Here’s a closer look at where things stand:
1st district
Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-CA) won the special election to succeed LaMalfa, who died at age 65 following complications during emergency surgery.
With roughly 55% of the vote counted by early Wednesday, Gallagher avoided a runoff and secured the seat in the heavily Republican 1st Congressional District, according to the Associated Press.
Gallagher, who previously served as the Assembly Republican leader, will complete the remainder of LaMalfa’s term. His victory restores another seat to the GOP conference as Republicans work with a razor-thin House majority.
The election also determined who would advance to the November general election: Gallagher and former state Senate President Pro Tempore Mike McGuire.
While the special election was conducted using the district’s previous boundaries, the political terrain Gallagher faces this fall will be considerably less favorable. The newly configured district presents a more challenging electoral map, setting up what is expected to be a far more competitive reelection bid.
6th district
A razor-thin margin separated the leading candidates in the newly redrawn 6th district, leaving the Democratic contender narrowly in third place as votes continue to be counted.
Kiley, who switched party affiliation from Republican to independent earlier this year, has emerged as one of the loudest critics of California’s mid-decade congressional remap, accusing Democrats of redrawing the map to weaken GOP incumbents. He has also voiced frustration with House leadership — including Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) — for failing to advance federal legislation to curb partisan redistricting.
Kiley, a former high school English teacher, had represented California’s 3rd district, a conservative-leaning area that is also the state’s most geographically diverse. The new 3rd district was split into six factions, and Kiley has said he would not run in it. Instead, he ran in the redrawn 6th Congressional District, centered in the Sacramento area. It’s forced Kiley into a far more competitive race. Instead of seeking safer Republican territory, he chose to stay in his district and re-register as “No Party Preference” while continuing to caucus with Republicans in Congress.
As of 5 p.m. Eastern Wednesday, he was leading the race, with Republican Michael Stansfield in second place, with Democrat Richard Pan hot on his heels.
22nd district
Valadao, a centrist Republican who was first elected to Congress in 2012, has been a long-sought target for Democrats, who have held a sizable registration advantage in his 22nd district. Valadao had emphasized his support for immigration reform in the past, only to be voted out of office when the blue wave of 2018 hit. He won it back in 2020. Two years ago, he kept his seat in a hard-fought race, making him one of two House Republicans who supported the impeachment of President Donald Trump and still held their seats.
He has advanced to the November runoff, but the race is too close to call for the Democratic candidate who will likely join him.
40th district
Calvert, who had represented the 41st district before it was carved up, switched to the 40th, where he faced incumbent Rep. Young Kim (R-CA). Calvert was declared the winner of the primary race, but the second-place winner has not been called.
The campaign for the state’s 40th Congressional District has been a bruising, and at times, deeply personal primary. If Kim holds off the Democratic challenger, two Republicans would head into the general election to determine which incumbent keeps their seat in Congress.
California’s 40th Congressional District is a sprawling region southeast of Los Angeles that stretches across Orange County suburbs, parts of Riverside County, and mountain communities along the Santa Ana range. Once considered competitive territory, the district was transformed into safe Republican ground after Democratic mapmakers packed it with conservative voters siphoned from neighboring GOP seats.
Calvert, 72, is the longest-serving Republican in California’s congressional delegation. He has spent 33 years in Congress, survived two rounds of redistricting, and says he is not intimidated by another political fight, especially against Kim.
Kim said Calvert had his time in office to prove himself and failed.
48th district
Issa announced his retirement after California’s new map drew him and his mother out of his San Diego district, which had been a Republican stronghold.
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Competing to succeed him are Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who secured endorsements from both Issa and Trump, and Democrat Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego city councilwoman. Both candidates advanced from Tuesday’s primary and will face off in November.
Democrats had worried that a split vote between von Wilpert and fellow Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar could pave the way for two Republicans to claim the top two spots, effectively locking the party out of the general election. Those concerns ultimately did not materialize.
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