House Speaker Vote for Commencement Later Today

Spencer will be eligible to vote in the official election later today. With their small majority of House Republicans, it is now that they can decide who will be the speaker for this new Congress session. Presumptive House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R. CA) has had a rough ride. He is now facing a mini-rebellion from his fellow members. However, it is large enough to cause complete mayhem if current camps keep their lines. Five Republicans—Andy Biggs (R-AZ) and Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Bob Good (R-VA), Ralph Norman (R-SC), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT)—have already voiced their opposition to McCarthy. This would be enough for California Republican to lose the election and make the GOP a laughingstock after they lost one of the most competitive elections in recent history. 

Do McCarthy has the votes? That’s the lingering question floating around Capitol Hill for weeks. It was one thing to be ranting about John Boehner, the former House Speaker. He had many detractors and threatened to fire everyone. They failed, and they didn’t make serious attempts. McCarthy is an example of this. There are many independent conservatives who will do the right thing and care little about politics. 

With the zero-hour fast approaching, the chance for mayhem feels more significant than it was under Boehner’s speakership. These shenanigans could lead to a more embarrassing result for the GOP than the 2022 election results. A Democratic House Speaker will be presiding over a Republican House minority. 

Via Politico:

Kevin McCarthy has already moved into the speaker’s office, even as an influential conservative group urges members to vote against him unless he concedes to key rules changes. 

McCarthy still has 218 votes to win the House’s vote on the person who will take the gavel. His last-ditch efforts, which included a long list concessions that he made to his conference, have not succeeded in convincing his most bitter opponents.

McCarthy was correct to predict that the House rules concessions would help him gain support. But his opponents and skeptics continued to hurl new criticisms at McCarthy on Monday. 

“Why didn’t we get McCarthy’s proposed rules package at least 72 hours in advance?” Twitter: Rep. Dan Bishop (R.N.C.), Freedom Caucus Member 

The election of a speaker is usually a symbolic moment. The vote is often decided several weeks or months in advance. But absent a sudden flip among his detractors, McCarthy’s bid for the gavel will prompt a historically rare showdown, marking just the second time since the Civil War that the race could go beyond one ballot. In fact, many Republicans are bracing for votes that could last multiple days, as McCarthy’s allies vow to only vote for him and five conservatives promise to oppose him, with no clear alternative candidate. 

McCarthy met briefly in Florida with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R.Fla.), who is one of his most passionate opponents. Also, he met briefly and spoke with Reps. Scott Perry (R.Pa.) Lauren Boebert(R.Colo.), none of whom has committed to voting for the California Republican. 

Gaetz joked that they could be on before he entered the meeting. “the verge of a New Year’s miracle,” He stated that the talk had been a success. “brief and productive” — and, critically, that he and five others are still “no” votes. 

[…] 

McCarthy convened a strategy meeting Monday evening with his supporters to address the new signs of trouble. The meeting, according to GOP attendees, was meant to motivate his backers, as they gathered in the speaker’s office for the first time, and McCarthy vowed to fight no matter how many ballots it takes. 

“There’s still a few things up in the air,” Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R.Pa.), who attended, said: “[But] I think he gets there. The question is when.”

Despite not yet having a lock on the gavel, McCarthy is spending Monday working out of the speaker’s office, a tradition routinely granted to the speaker-elect. He would need to leave the office if he fails.

Via Washington Examiner:

It would seem that five members are required to bring this motion to the floor.

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) January 1, 2023

The House of Representatives calls this a parliamentary rule. “motion to vacate the chair” is playing a key role in Kevin McCarthy (R-CA’s) bid to be Speaker of the House. 

A motion to vacate, a parliamentary procedure that is similar to a vote in no confidence, allows members to request the resignation of the presiding officer. McCarthy told his conservative foes that he would reduce how many members are needed to make a motion for vacate and to force a vote at the House’s floor. 

The current rule states that half the House GOP must vote in order to move to remove a leader. McCarthy seems to have accepted to lower that number. “less than five,” CNN. CNN reported that his most bitter critics want only one member of the committee to be able force a vote about speaker’s suitability. The GOP’s centrist wing has said they won’t lower the threshold to 50.

Although voters don’t love Joe Biden and his policies, they are cautious about a GOP majority that could be volatile. Voters saw that 2022 was a choice between pickled herring and rotten shark—both suck. However, Democrats continue to push unpopular economic policy that has harmed working families. Stability is more attractive than pandemonium which they fear in a Congress with large Republican majorities. If McCarthy’s speakership vote becomes a total shambles, it would only reinforce that sentiment.