House gears up for 2024 shakeup with multiple special elections
The New Year Brings Special Elections That Could Shift the Balance of Power in the House
The start of the new year will bring a series of special elections that have the potential to reshape the House of Representatives, even before the November 2024 elections. Several incumbents have announced their early retirements, creating vacancies that need to be filled as the 2024 cycle begins. In total, four seats must be filled, including three being vacated by retiring members and one that was occupied by former New York Rep. George Santos before he was expelled.
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Let’s take a closer look at all the upcoming special elections in the House and how they could impact the lower chamber and the 2024 ballot:
New York’s 3rd Congressional District (George Santos)
One of the most highly anticipated special elections next year will be to replace George Santos, a Republican who was ousted from the House in December. This makes him only the sixth member of Congress ever to be removed. The race is expected to draw significant attention as Democrats aim to flip the seat and narrow the GOP’s slim majority. Both parties have already selected their nominees, with the special election scheduled for February 13, 2024. Democrats have chosen former Rep. Tom Suozzi, while Republicans have selected state legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip. Whoever wins will serve the remainder of Santos’s term and have a strong chance of being reelected later in the year. Democratic groups are already pledging to get involved in the election, which will take place in a toss-up district. On the other hand, Republicans will fight hard to retain the seat, as it was one of four districts they flipped in 2022 to gain control of the House.
California’s 20th Congressional District (Kevin McCarthy)
The House will have another vacant seat when former Speaker Kevin McCarthy resigns from Congress. Governor Gavin Newsom will have two weeks to schedule a special election to replace him. McCarthy’s departure is a blow to Republicans, as it will further diminish their majority and leave the party without one of its most prominent members. Several candidates have already declared their bids to replace McCarthy, including Republican Assemblyman Vince Fong, who has received McCarthy’s endorsement. However, the district is considered safely Republican. McCarthy’s resignation comes just two months after he was removed from the speakership, marking the first time in history that the House voted to remove its leader.
Ohio’s 6th Congressional District (Bill Johnson)
Republicans are expected to lose another seat in March with the resignation of Rep. Bill Johnson, who will step down early to become the president of Youngstown State University. While this could further decrease House Republicans’ majority, the seat is likely to remain in GOP control as it is a heavily Republican district. Johnson’s decision to leave Congress early was a difficult one, but he has expressed his commitment to continue serving until his departure. The exact date of his resignation is yet to be determined.
New York’s 26th Congressional District (Brian Higgins)
On the other side, Democrats will experience a retirement with the departure of Rep. Brian Higgins. Higgins cited dysfunction caused by the Republican majority as the reason for his decision to step down. He will be taking on a new role as president and CEO of Shea’s Performing Arts Center. After Higgins resigns on February 2, 2024, a special election will be scheduled to fill his seat. This will be the second special election in New York in 2024, following the replacement of George Santos.
These special elections will undoubtedly shape the political landscape in the House and set the stage for the 2024 elections. The outcomes will determine whether the balance of power shifts and which party gains an advantage in the lower chamber.
How could the retirement of Rep. McCarthy and the special election in California’s 20th Congressional District potentially impact the balance of power in the House?
Influence and power of their party in the House. McCarthy, who has been a vocal supporter of former President Trump, was a key figure in rallying the Republican base. The special election to fill McCarthy’s seat will be closely watched to see if Democrats can capitalize on this opportunity and expand their majority. California’s 20th Congressional District has traditionally been a Republican stronghold, but changing demographics and a shifting political landscape could give Democrats a chance to flip the seat. Party leaders will be carefully considering their candidates and campaign strategies to ensure success in this competitive district.
North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District (Richard Hudson)
In another important special election, North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District will be up for grabs as Rep. Richard Hudson retires. This district has historically leaned Republican, but it has become more competitive in recent years. Democrats will be eager to make a play for this seat and potentially further erode the GOP’s majority. Republicans, on the other hand, will be working hard to defend their ground and hold onto the seat. Both parties will be carefully selecting their candidates and strategizing their campaigns to appeal to the district’s voters. The outcome of this special election could provide insights into the political landscape leading up to the 2024 elections.
Tennessee’s 2nd Congressional District (Tim Burchett)
Rep. Tim Burchett’s retirement in Tennessee’s 2nd Congressional District opens up another opportunity for the parties to vie for control. This district has traditionally been a safe Republican seat, but Democrats have been making gains in similar districts across the country. They will be hoping to ride the wave of momentum and flip this seat in their favor. Republicans, on the other hand, will be determined to maintain their stronghold and retain the district. The special election in Tennessee’s 2nd Congressional District will be a crucial battleground for both parties, and the outcome could have significant implications for the balance of power in the House.
As these special elections unfold, political observers will be closely watching for any shifts or trends that could indicate the overall political landscape leading up to the 2024 elections. The outcomes of these elections could provide valuable insights into voter preferences, party strategies, and the potential for major shifts in the balance of power within the House of Representatives. With multiple retirements and vacancies, both Democrats and Republicans will be vying for these seats, intensifying the competition and raising the stakes. The results of these special elections could set the tone for the November 2024 elections and shape the future direction of American politics.
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