Holiday seasonal hiring expected to slow as shopping kicks off with Black Friday

Seasonal Hiring for the Holiday Season Expected⁣ to Slow Down

Get ready for a different kind of holiday ‌shopping experience this year. ⁤Seasonal hiring for the holiday season is⁤ projected to be slower ⁢than last year, indicating a potential cooling off of the labor market. As the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, retailers across the⁤ country are preparing for a less intense surge⁤ in hiring compared​ to previous years.

Typically, retailers hire additional staff ahead of the holiday shopping season, which kicks⁤ off‌ with Black Friday and extends through December. The⁣ increase in shoppers⁤ buying gifts and groceries for holiday feasts requires more workers to handle the​ demand.

Lower ⁢Expectations for Seasonal Hiring

According to the National Retail Federation, employers are expected to add between 345,000 and 445,000 seasonal workers to their payrolls,⁢ a decrease of up to 40% compared to‍ the peak in 2021. Outplacement services firm Challenger, Gray, and Christmas predict ‍even fewer seasonal positions, with an estimated 410,000 retail jobs ⁣added in the ‌fourth quarter, the ⁣lowest number since 2008.

Andrew Challenger, head of sales and media​ at Challenger,⁣ Gray, and Christmas, explains that companies, especially retailers, won’t be able to pass on ⁤increased labor costs to consumers as easily due ⁤to slowing inflation. This could result in more job cuts rather than new positions. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, believes ​that the average consumer will also notice the trend,‌ with less customer support and longer lines expected.

Factors Influencing the Slowdown

Roach acknowledges that the U.S. experienced an⁣ unusually robust year economically, partly due to pent-up demand and “revenge spending” as COVID-19⁣ restrictions eased. However, he believes this trajectory is unlikely ‌to continue. While there are some early indicators, such as rising credit card balances and delinquencies, suggesting potential challenges, ⁢Roach emphasizes that there is still support for a soft-landing narrative.

Another factor impacting seasonal hiring is the rise of online shopping,‍ which was already​ growing before the pandemic.‍ The convenience and attraction of online buying may lead firms to hire fewer seasonal workers. Michael Collins, interim director of the School of Resort and Hospitality Management at Florida Gulf Coast University, notes that ⁤employers will still‍ face difficulties filling open positions due to the‍ acute‍ labor shortage, particularly for front-line entry-level roles.

Changing Shopping Habits

Bankrate⁤ research reveals that holiday shoppers‌ are ​starting​ earlier, with ‍half projected to begin shopping before the end of October ‌and ‍a quarter even​ starting before the end of September. Retailers are also offering deals to encourage‌ early ⁣shopping, shifting the focus from a single‌ day to​ a season of deals. This spread-out shopping season reduces ‍the urgency for a massive surge in seasonal workers during a ⁣specific timeframe.

Record Holiday Spending Expected Despite Slower Hiring

Although seasonal hiring may slow ⁢down, seasonal shopping is still anticipated to ⁣reach record levels this year. The National ​Retail Federation⁢ predicts a⁤ 3% to 4% increase in ​holiday spending compared to last year, with shoppers‌ estimated to spend up to $966.6 billion in November⁣ and December. This growth aligns with pre-pandemic trends, which saw an average annual holiday spending increase of 3.6% from 2010 to 2019.

However, this year’s shopping season is​ expected to⁤ be a slowdown compared to 2022’s robust 5.4% growth‍ and⁢ the extraordinary rebound years of 2020 and 2021, which saw holiday ‌sales rise by over 9%⁣ and 13.5%, ​respectively.

James Bailey, a professor at George Washington University’s‌ School of Business, warns that ⁢falling below the⁣ projected 3% to 4% increase ‍would be a concerning sign for the overall labor market and the state of the economy.

Get ready for a ‌holiday season that may be different‍ from previous years,‌ with slower seasonal hiring but still record-breaking ⁤spending.

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How might the reduction in seasonal hiring⁢ impact job⁢ seekers’ ability to secure employment during the holiday season?

To rely more ‍on their existing workforce and automate certain tasks, rather than​ hiring additional seasonal ‌workers. ‌This shift towards e-commerce has⁣ been accelerated by the global health crisis, with ⁢more consumers opting for online shopping due to safety concerns and restrictions on in-person shopping.

Moreover, uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic may also be contributing to the⁣ slowdown in seasonal⁢ hiring. The highly contagious Delta variant has led to a resurgence in ⁣cases and renewed concerns⁣ about public health ‍and safety.‍ Retailers may be hesitant to increase their workforce significantly, anticipating potential disruptions due to outbreaks and subsequent lockdowns or restrictions.

Additionally, supply chain challenges and labor shortages are also affecting retailers’ ability to⁢ hire seasonal workers.⁢ The global supply chain has been strained by various factors, ⁢including scarcity of shipping ⁣containers, congestion at ports, and disruptions in manufacturing. These challenges ‍have made it difficult for retailers​ to secure sufficient inventory and meet consumer demand, reducing the need ⁣for additional staffing.

Impact ⁣on Job Seekers and the Economy

The slowdown in seasonal hiring could have‌ significant implications for job seekers, many of whom rely on these temporary positions ‌to ⁤alleviate financial strain during the holiday season. With fewer opportunities available, competition for ⁣available jobs may intensify, making‍ it more ‌difficult for individuals to secure employment.

Moreover, the reduced hiring could ‍also impact consumer spending during the holiday season. The ‍temporary workforce plays a crucial role in supporting the increased demand for goods and services during this time. With fewer​ workers, retailers may struggle to meet customer needs effectively, leading to potential ⁣delays and decreased customer satisfaction.

From an economic standpoint, the slowdown in seasonal hiring reflects a potential⁤ cooling off of ​the​ labor market. It suggests that businesses are exercising caution and may have less confidence in the strength​ of the recovery. Slower job growth could impact consumer sentiment and overall economic performance, as consumer spending accounts for a significant portion of the‌ U.S. GDP.

Conclusion

As the holiday season approaches, expectations for seasonal hiring ⁤are lower than in previous years. Various factors, including the Federal Reserve’s policies, the rise of ⁣e-commerce, uncertainties ⁢surrounding ⁢the pandemic, supply chain challenges, and labor shortages, have contributed to the projected slowdown. Job seekers may face increased competition for temporary positions, while retailers ⁣may struggle to meet consumer demand adequately.

The impact of‍ the reduced seasonal hiring on ‌the economy ‍remains to be seen. However, it is crucial ‌for businesses and policymakers to monitor the situation closely and make any necessary adjustments to support the labor market and ⁤ensure economic ⁢stability.⁤ Ultimately, this changing landscape highlights the need for resilience, adaptability, ​and innovation ‌in the⁣ retail ‌industry and the broader economy as ⁣we⁢ navigate these challenging times.