We Won’t Know If Tyler Robinson Will Stand Trial Until September

The preliminary hearings used to determine whether Tyler Robinson will be tried for capital murder ended Friday, with no answer as to whether Robinson will stand trial for the assassination of Charlie Kirk.

Judge Tony Graf will need to review all the evidence put before the court over the last five days to determine whether the bar of probable cause is met in order to send the case to trial. State prosecutors, Robinson and his counsel, and Graf will meet again on Sept. 1 at 10:00 a.m., after which Graf will, at some point, make the decision.

The defense introduced one new witness Friday, Caitlin Oliver, a forensic biologist for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) who worked on the DNA analysis of evidence pertaining to the gun and ammunition allegedly used by Robinson.

Robinson’s attorneys have exclusively called forensic analysts as witnesses in an attempt to create a level of doubt about forensic and DNA science as a whole. Defense attorney Michael Burt did the same Friday with Oliver, often reading from standard operating procedure (SOP) manuals and textbooks about the reliability of the science.

He has pointed to the fact that there is no scientific way to be 100 percent certain of one’s DNA evidence on an item, but Oliver and others on the stand have said that is why they use a statistical representation of the possibility that someone’s DNA is on a piece of evidence — as opposed to another person’s — instead of claiming absolute certainty.

For numerous pieces of evidence, including multiple locations on the rifle, cartridges, and other items, the likelihood that the DNA is Robinson’s has been extraordinarily high.

Utah State Bureau of Investigation Sgt. Jennifer Faumuina, the lead for the evidence response team in the Kirk case, testified, for example, that the DNA profile obtained from swabs of the trigger and trigger guard is “at least 1 trillion times more likely if it originated from Tyler Robinson as a major component and three unrelated unknown individuals than if it originated from four unrelated unknown individuals.”

Responding to questions from Burt, Oliver also testified that the true number of contributors of DNA can never be known, and that no testing could speak to the activity leading to the DNA’s existence on an item.

Some, including TPUSA’s Andrew Kolvet and Fox News pundit Kayleigh McEnany, have pointed out that this trial is taking an enormous amount of time, and that proceedings like this week’s are often completed more quickly in much of the United States.

After the hearings ended Friday, the Kirk family filed a motion requesting a prompt determination of probable cause, stating it should be made “no later” than Sept. 1.

Graf has also been the target of some online ire for his occasional rulings against the Kirk family in motions to release certain exhibits to be played, at least to the courtroom gallery.

While Graf has opened much of the hearings up to the public, including to a livestream, he became more reserved Friday after there was an unauthorized filming of an exhibit Thursday, leading him to shut down the video capture of any future exhibit Friday. He said the court retains the ability to alter that decision when it reconvenes in September.

“The conclusion of the preliminary hearing marks an important step forward in the pursuit of justice for Charlie. Our family is grateful for the prayers, support, and kindness that has been extended to us, especially through these unimaginably painful and emotionally demanding proceedings,” a statement released by the Kirk family reads. “As difficult as these last few days have been, it brings our family comfort to know that the world has witnessed the overwhelming evidence of what occurred to Charlie that day. Nothing will ever undo the loss of our beloved Charlie. As this case moves into its next phase, we pray that truth will continue to be heard through a process that is fair, transparent, and grounded in the facts.”

Breccan F. Thies is the White House correspondent for The Federalist. He is a co-recipient of the 2025 Dao Prize for Excellence in Investigative Journalism. As an investigative journalist, he previously covered education and culture issues for the Washington Examiner and Breitbart News. He holds a degree from the University of Virginia and is a 2022 Claremont Institute Publius Fellow. You can follow him on X: @BreccanFThies.