Here Are the States Getting the Biggest Tax Refunds
Tax refunds in 2026 are projected to average nearly $3,600, following the passage of a new federal measure last summer. The Upgraded Points report notes that refunds have historically ranged around $2,800-$3,000, with a record near $3,200 in 2022, and suggests this year could see higher payouts in part due to the new policy. Florida is expected to have the largest refunds, averaging over $4,400, based on 11.1 million returns filed and about 7.5 million refunds anticipated there; texas, with more than 13.6 million returns, is projected to average around $4,300. residents of Wyoming, Nevada, and Louisiana are also likely to see refunds above the national average, around $4,100-$4,200.
The report cautions that a larger refund is not necessarily a financial win, since it typically means more was withheld from paychecks during the year, effectively giving the government an interest-free loan. It advises taxpayers to adjust withholdings to better match actual tax liability to free up money for savings or investments. It also notes that wealthier taxpayers often receive larger average refunds but are less likely to receive one at all, with 68% of those earning $50,000-$100,000 expecting about $3,200 on average, while only 35% of those earning over $200,000 expect a refund, albeit averaging nearly $18,000 when they do.
The piece highlights that the united States has the most progressive tax system among developed countries, with the top 1% paying about 40% of all federal income tax revenue (as of tax year 2022) and the bottom half about 3%. It also echoes a libertarian viewpoint from the cato Institute, which argues that progressive taxes can dampen incentives to work, take entrepreneurial risks, or invest in education, possibly slowing long-term economic progress.
This past Wednesday was April 15 — the notorious day on which most federal income tax returns are due.
But as millions of Americans received tax refunds, some received bigger payouts than others, according to a report from travel and personal finance company Upgraded Points.
The report noted that federal tax refunds have usually ranged between $2,800 and $3,000 over the past 15 years, setting a record by surpassing $3,200 during the 2022 filing season.
But 2026 may have broken that benchmark, since the average refund is expected to be nearly $3,600 following the passage of President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” last summer.
Florida taxpayers are expected to see the largest refunds in the country, with the typical amount surpassing $4,400.
There were 11.1 million federal returns filed in Florida, and 7.5 million are projected to receive a refund.
Texas, which had the second-highest filing volume as more than 13.6 million returns were submitted, was next with a $4,300 average refund.
Residents of Wyoming, Nevada, and Louisiana were also likely to receive higher refunds than the national average — ranging between $4,200 and $4,100.
While many taxpayers look forward to a refund, Upgraded Points noted that a large check is not “necessarily a financial win.”
“A sizable refund often means that too much was withheld from paychecks throughout the year — essentially providing the federal government with an interest-free loan,” the company noted.
“For households aiming to optimize their finances, adjusting tax withholdings to better match actual tax liability can free up money for savings, investments, or everyday expenses throughout the year,” Upgraded Points advised.
Based on preliminary data, Upgraded Points also noted that wealthier taxpayers receive larger average refunds, but are less likely to actually receive a refund in the first place.
While 68 percent of those making between $50,000 and $100,000 can expect an average refund of $3,200, only 35 percent of those making over $200,000 can look for a refund, though they average nearly $18,000.
However, the United States has the most progressive tax system in the developed world, meaning such households pay an outsized of their income to the federal government.
As of tax year 2022, the top 1 percent of earners were paying 40 percent of all income tax revenue, while the bottom half were paying only 3 percent, according to an analysis from the Tax Foundation.
As noted by the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank, progressive income tax systems “make each additional hour of work or investment less rewarding, weakening incentives to work longer hours, take entrepreneurial risks, start new ventures, or invest in continuing education.”
“Over time, these effects compound, slowing economic progress and material well-being for everyone,” the organization said.
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