Here are the key Minnesota primary races to watch
Minnesota is holding its partisan primary elections on Tuesday, less than three months before key gubernatorial and congressional races. The most notable races include the governor’s race, the Senate seat, and the House seat.
In the gubernatorial race, Democratic frontrunner Amy Klobuchar is expected to win easily, with six other Democratic candidates competing but trailing behind. On the Republican side, the race is more competitive, with candidates such as Lisa Demuth, mike Lindell (endorsed by Trump), and Kendall Qualls vying for the nomination. Polls suggest Demuth and Lindell are leading, but Klobuchar remains the favorite to win the general election.
For the Senate, the seat being vacated by retiring Senator Tina smith has a Democratic primary led by rep. Angie Craig and lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, with Flanagan holding a double-digit lead in recent polls. The Republican primary features outsiders like former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, ex-NBA player Royce White, and broadcaster Michele Tafoya, with Tafoya leading in polls. The Democratic nominee is poised to have a notable advantage over the republican candidate in the general election.
In the House race, Representative Angie Craig is running for Senate, opening her Congressional seat. Democratic candidates such as Matt little, Kaela Berg, and Matt Klein are competing for the nomination, while Republican incumbent Eric Pratt is running unopposed. The district is expected to stay Democratic, though the open race offers some hope for Republicans.
these primaries will shape Minnesota’s political landscape heading into the November elections,with the Democratic candidates holding strong positions in the key races.
Minnesota is holding its partisan primary elections on Tuesday, less than three months before voters will decide the governorship and key congressional races.
Here are the most notable races to watch in Minnesota this election cycle:
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Governor
The most high-profile race in Minnesota this year is undoubtedly the gubernatorial election. Many candidates on both sides of the aisle are seeking to replace Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN), who is not seeking a third term.
In the Democratic primary, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) is by far the frontrunner. She is running alongside her lieutenant governor running mate, former Fergus Falls Mayor Ben Schierer. Though the primary is crowded, it is not competitive for Klobuchar. She already secured the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party’s official endorsement.
The other six Democratic candidates are Po Vang, Mohammad Wazwaz, Ole Savior, Bill Gates Jr. (unrelated to Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates), Thomas Evenstad, and Kobey Layne.
On the Republican side, the primary race is more competitive. Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth, former MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell, and businessman Kendall Qualls are among the top contenders while the remaining four candidates are behind in the polls.
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Qualls previously ran for governor as a failed Republican candidate in 2022, and it appears he may come up short again despite an endorsement from the Republican Party of Minnesota. Demuth and Lindell, whom President Donald Trump endorsed, take the lead in multiple polls compiled by the New York Times.
Whoever secures the GOP nomination will have a difficult time defeating Klobuchar, who holds a sizable lead over any Republican candidate. The one who closes the gap most with the likely Democratic nominee is Demuth. She is 8 points behind Klobuchar, according to a general election poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research in June.
Senate
Another race to keep an eye on is for the state’s open Senate seat, to be vacated by retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN).
Of the six Democratic primary candidates, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D-MN) are the top two. Flanagan is backed by Smith, and Craig is supported by Walz’s wife, Gwen. The outgoing governor has not weighed in on the race.
Flanagan is ahead of Craig by 14 points, according to a Public Policy Polling survey released in late July. One month earlier, the same pollster showed Flanagan holding a 7-point lead over her opponent. If the polls hold true, the lieutenant governor may be the Democratic nominee for the Senate seat.
Meanwhile, the Republican primary is filled with political outsiders seeking to challenge the eventual Democratic nominee. The candidates who top the list are former Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze, who clinched the Minnesota GOP’s endorsement; former NBA player Royce White, who ran against Klobuchar in 2024; and Emmy Award-winning sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, whose Senate campaign marks the first time she’s running for public office.
Tafoya has consistently held double-digit leads over her competitors, according to four different polls since February. Despite the clear advantage within her own party, she may not be able to win the general election. The Democratic nominee, whether that’s Craig or Flanagan, is 8 points ahead of the Republican nominee in the aforementioned Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey from June.
The state’s other Senate seat is occupied by Klobuchar. Notably, she will have to resign from her Senate seat to make way for a temporary replacement until a special election can be held if she becomes Minnesota’s next governor. Her current Senate term expires in January 2031.
House
While Craig runs for the Senate, the congresswoman is opening up her House seat to some competition.
Former state Sen. Matt Little, state Rep. Kaela Berg, and state Sen. Matt Klein are the main candidates running in the Democratic primary. Meanwhile, state Sen. Eric Pratt is running unopposed in the Republican primary.
Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, represented by Craig, will likely see a Democratic victor come November. The Cook Political Report believes the district will remain blue, but the publication noted that the open race “provides a glimmer of hope for Republicans, who had written [Craig] off as unbeatable.”
Craig has not endorsed any candidate in the race to replace her. With his DFL endorsement, Little appears to be the favorite contender.
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