GOP redistricting plans infuse energy into midterm campaigns
Republicans are gaining momentum toward retaining control of the U.S.House in the 2026 midterms thanks to recent redistricting wins, despite President Donald Trump’s low approval. the GOP’s push was boosted after the Supreme Court weakened protections related to race-based gerrymandering in *Louisiana v. Callais*, prompting changes such as Louisiana suspending House primaries to redraw its map. Other states,including Tennessee and Florida,have also moved ahead with redistricting.
Redistricting litigation and court rulings have gone both ways. In Virginia, the state Supreme Court rejected a voter-approved redistricting amendment that would have given Democrats a 10-1 House advantage, forcing Democrats to keep their current 6-5 advantage for the rest of the decade.
Election forecasts suggest redistricting coudl translate into Republican net gains ranging from about five to 14 seats, though Democrats could also gain seats. Simultaneously occurring, polling indicates weak voter enthusiasm for Trump’s party: enthusiasm among Republicans and Trump supporters is lower than among Democrats, and Trump’s approval ratings on the economy and Iran conflict are in the low 30s, with many voters blaming him for rising gas prices tied to the Iran war.
while Democrats show early momentum and Republicans may benefit from map changes, Trump’s unpopular image and the top issues driving voter concern could present challenges for republican candidates across key races.
Republicans have recently secured several redistricting wins, which could boost their chances of maintaining control over the House this fall despite President Donald Trump’s record-low popularity.
The GOP was handed a victory late last month when the Supreme Court struck down race-based gerrymandering by weakening the Voting Rights Act of 1965 in the Louisiana v. Callais decision. Shortly thereafter, Louisiana suspended its House primary elections to redraw its congressional map.
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BY THE NUMBERS: HOW MANY SEATS HAS EACH PARTY GAINED IN REDISTRICTING?
The ruling also emboldened other red states, such as Tennessee and Florida, to proceed with their own redistricting plans.
And on Friday, the Virginia Supreme Court ruled that the state’s voter-approved redistricting amendment that would have given Democrats a 10-1 advantage in the House was unconstitutional. As a result, Virginia Democrats are forced to stick with their 6-5 advantage through the midterm elections and the rest of the decade.
When all is said and done, Republicans could gain anywhere from five to 14 seats due to redistricting, according to an estimate from the Cook Political Report. The Democratic campaign could net them six seats.
While the GOP may have some extra energy for the midterm campaigns, voter enthusiasm for Trump’s party is low.
In the new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll this week, 53% of Republicans and 47% of Trump supporters said they were “very enthusiastic” to vote in the midterm elections. By contrast, 61% of Democrats and 2024 voters for former Vice President Kamala Harris described themselves the same way.
Key issues weighing on voters’ minds this election cycle are the economy and the Iran war, which are intertwined with each other.
Those points are negatively impacting Trump’s approval ratings. The NPR polls shows his economic approval is down to 35%, and his approval regarding Iran is even lower at 33%. Furthermore, 63% of respondents blame Trump for the record increase in gas prices amid the Iran conflict. Overall, he stands at 37% approval and 59% disapproval.
Other polls paint a similar picture. Only 36% of people approve of Trump’s performance and 58% disapprove, according to a recent Economist/YouGov poll. His Iran-related approval numbers are even more stark, with a nearly 30-point gap between those who approve and others who disapprove.
Last month, an NBC News Decision Desk poll showed similar shares of overall approval for Trump’s handling of the job as president.
Despite his waning popularity over Iran, Trump is adamant about preventing the Islamic regime from developing nuclear weapons — one of the many reasons he cites for the U.S.-led attack.
A Napolitan News survey from last month showed 53% of U.S. voters saying it is more important to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon than ending the war. Trump touted the survey’s findings on social media Saturday morning.
“Very important. This is where our Nation stands,” he posted on Truth Social, sharing a Just the News article on the poll.
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While Trump is not on the ballot this year, the issues plaguing him could harm Republican candidates’ election performances.
Democrats already have momentum going into the midterm elections, with numerous victories at the state level since Trump’s reelection in 2024. It remains to be seen if the minority party’s early edge can translate to taking control of Congress. The House is more in danger of being wrested away from Republicans than the Senate, although Democrats are growing confident about their chances in both chambers.
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