First hurricane of 2023 season expected, forecast uncertain.

First Atlantic Hurricane of 2023 Season Expected to Develop

People in the Caribbean are being advised to take precautions as the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2023 season is expected to develop from a system brewing in the tropics later this week and head their way.

Monitoring the Situation

Tropical Depression Three formed over the Central Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is heading west, leading the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to advise everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands to “closely monitor” for updates and have a hurricane plan prepared.

Potential Hazards

A risk of flooding, heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and “dangerous” storm surge and waves are all possible, but a “larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast” means it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude of these hazards, NHC said.

Jun 19 8AM EDT: Very busy for mid-June – the central Atlantic wave in red (#AL92) is close to becoming a tropical depression, and the E Atlantic system in orange could develop this week. For full details, visit https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJ pic.twitter.com/JnOYzHnSSe

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 19, 2023

Forecasters with AccuWeather predicted that the system could become a tropical storm by Tuesday morning and later a hurricane, which requires sustained maximum winds of at least 74 miles per hour, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Development and Naming

As of mid-Monday, the storm’s maximum sustained winds were being clocked at around 35 mph with higher wind gusts, and considering the expectation for some strengthening, the “depression is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days,” NHC said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced last month that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, stretching from June 1 to November 30, was expected to have near-normal activity with 12-17 named storms and five-nine of them strengthening to hurricane status.

Tropical Depression Three is destined to receive the name “Bret” after Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the Gulf of Mexico earlier this month and quickly dissipated.

Preparation and Uncertainty

The National Weather Service station in Miami said on Monday there is no current threat to southern Florida at the moment, but urged people to take this time to prepare for the hurricane season. NHC forecasters said a second disturbance also has a chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.

James Spann, a popular meteorologist in Alabama, said that it is premature to determine whether the United States will be affected by what may become Hurricane Bret.

TD3 forms in the Atlantic; it should become Tropical Storm Bret soon. Still lots of uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast. For now NHC forecasts the system to be a hurricane south of Puerto Rico by Saturday. Too early to know if this will impact the contiguous U.S. pic.twitter.com/O99I6beCXz

— James Spann (@spann) June 19, 2023

“TD3 forms in the Atlantic; it should become Tropical Storm Bret soon. Still lots of uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast,” Spann said in a tweet. “For now NHC forecasts the system to be a hurricane south of Puerto Rico by Saturday. Too early to know if this will impact the contiguous U.S.”