Fed set to raise rates in July despite weaker job growth in June.

The Federal Reserve Expected to Raise Interest Rates Despite Weaker Job Growth

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again at its next meeting later this month, despite a weaker-than-expected June employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 209,000 jobs in June, falling short of the forecasted expectations of 225,000. This was the first report in months that came in below the consensus prediction and the slowest pace of job growth since December 2020.

The Balancing Act of Quantitative Tightening

The Fed is walking a tightrope with its program of quantitative tightening. Striking the right balance is crucial, as tightening too little could result in unsuccessful inflation suppression and prolonged higher prices, while tightening too much could lead to job losses and a potential recession.

Fed officials have been hoping for some softening in the labor market to drive down inflation. However, the impact of a slowing job market on consumers’ lives makes this a challenging prospect. Despite signs of a slowdown in the latest report, the overall labor market remains historically strong, lending credence to the Fed’s hints of another round of rate increases.

Average Hourly Earnings and Inflation Target

The Fed also aims to see average hourly earnings cool off more than they have. The June report showed that average hourly earnings were up 4.4% on a year-over-year basis, well above the Fed’s target of about 3.5% in line with their 2% inflation target.

Investors are increasingly confident in the Fed’s decision to raise rates in July. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, there is now a more than 92% chance of a rate hike, up from just over 50% a month ago. This indicates that investors believe the Fed’s rate hikes will help cool economic demand and alleviate upward pressure on wages.

The Fed’s Forward Guidance and Projections

The Fed has been clear in its messaging that the pause in its last meeting was temporary and that rates are expected to move higher throughout the year to combat inflation. The Fed’s updated projections released in June surprised some observers, as they now anticipate two more rate increases over the next year.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the significant rate increases implemented over the past year and noted that their effects have yet to be fully felt. He stated that further rate increases are likely this year to bring inflation down to 2% over time.

Speculation on Future Rate Hikes

While a rate hike following the next meeting is almost certain, some investors are speculating that the Fed may go even further and raise rates again in September. Currently, there is a 23% chance that rates could reach 5.5% to 5.75%.

All eyes are now on the upcoming consumer price index report for June. After peaking above 9% last June, the CPI rate fell to 4% in May. Financial markets eagerly await this report to assess whether the pace of inflation is decreasing quickly enough to satisfy the Fed’s need for additional rate hikes.

“Next week’s CPI report will be even more important for financial markets to consider if the pace of inflation is edging lower quickly enough to satisfy the Fed’s need to quell inflation with two additional rate hikes or will July’s rate hike suffice,” said Quincy Krosby, the chief global strategist for LPL Financial.

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