Election Experts Predict Large Gains for GOP in Midterms

News Analysis

Despite polls that show Democrats enjoyed a summer bounce in generic congressional preference surveys, several key indicators presage the Democratic Party suffering considerable losses in November House, Senate, and gubernatorial races in a manner reminiscent of the 1994 Bill Clinton midterms, election experts told The Epoch Times.

In the 1994 tilt, the Democrats lost 54 U.S. House seats to the GOP, culminating in the election of Newt Gingrich to the House Speakership, along with the Republican pick-up of eight U.S. Senate seats and the gain of 10 gubernatorial seats for the GOP.

“Looking at the aggregate number of people who have cast a ballot in each major party primary, we see a clear turnout advantage for the Republicans, compared to the 2018 midterm election, with Republicans up just under 48 percent in primary turnout nationally, while the Democrats are down just over 18 percent,” private pollster Jim Ellis of Ellis Insight told the Epoch Times.

Turnout Highlights Lack of Enthusiasm Among Democrats

The turnout numbers highlight an important “enthusiasm gap” that could again leave the public media pollsters—as opposed to private campaign pollsters—with egg on their face in November, said the experts interviewed by The Epoch Times.

“The numbers, they seem pretty accurate from being on the ground,” said Conor Maguire, a principal and managing director at WPA Intelligence, a polling firm that specializes in electing conservatives.

In the campaigns primaries where WPA participated, they saw massive turnout amongst Republicans, added Maguire, who then also gave an additional indication of the trend away from Democrats in 2022.

“We saw 20-25 percent of the Republican primary voters had never even voted in a Republican primary before they had come out for the first time this year,” Maguire told The Epoch Times in a wide-ranging interview.

According to Maguire, WPA, unlike