May’s economy gained 339k jobs despite Fed rate hikes, with unemployment at 3.7%.

May Job Growth Beats Expectations Despite Fed Rate Hikes

The economy again beat expectations in May and added 339,000 jobs, showing that the labor market is still holding up despite the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking.

The headline job growth number in Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was far more than predicted, although the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, still a historically low figure. Friday’s report is being closely scrutinized as it comes against the backdrop of several major economic developments, including the Fed’s rate hikes, banking sector turmoil, and a weakened housing market.

Resilient Labor Market

The employment report’s household survey found that the number of unemployed persons rose by 440,000 to 6.1 million. Amazingly, and despite the Fed’s tightening, the country’s headline unemployment rate has only ranged from 3.4% to 3.7% since March 2022. The labor force participation rate held steady from the month before at 62.6% in May, and the employment-population ratio was little changed at 60.3%. A stronger jobs report shows that rate hikes aren’t harming the labor market as much as expected and could cause the Fed to lean toward another rate hike later this month.

Positive Revisions and Signs of Resilience

The Bureau of Labor Statistic employment numbers for the previous two months were also increased. March was revised up by 52,000 to 217,000, and April was revised up by 41,000 to 294,000. “With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 93,000 higher than previously reported,” the release noted. This latest report though shows that the labor market is continuing to show signs of resilience about halfway through 2023 and lessens some fears that a recession is right around the corner.

Banking Sector and Housing Market

Meanwhile, the banking sector is still under the microscope following the sudden failure of Silicon Valley Bank back in March. SVB’s downfall acted as a bit of a domino and led to a few other bank collapses as well as some regional banks seeing their stock values plunge. The federal government was able to step in and stymie the worst of the fallout, although economists are still closely watching the banking system given the overall volatility of the economy amid the Fed’s rate hiking.

While the broader economy is not in a recession, many experts contend that the housing market is. Home prices are falling, a sign of just home much the market has cooled since its red-hot zenith in 2020 when the Fed slashed rates to near-zero and mortgage rates fell in response. As of Thursday, the average rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 6.79%, according to Freddie Mac. That number is up from a recent low of just under 6.1% registered in early February and up from about 3.1% at the start of last year. Mortgage rates are now the highest they have been since November.

Construction Jobs Defy Gravity

Despite the flailing housing market, construction jobs have seemingly defied gravity. Friday’s report found that 25,000 new construction jobs were added in May and, over the prior year, construction had added an average of 17,000 jobs per month.

Overall, the latest employment report is a positive sign for the labor market and the economy as a whole, showing resilience in the face of various challenges.

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