Where’s my flying car, dude?

Breakthrough in Fusion Energy: A Shot for the Ages

On December 13, 2022, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory announced a groundbreaking achievement in fusion energy. After more than 60 years of global research, development, engineering, and experimentation, they have made a significant breakthrough. The National Nuclear Security Administration hailed this accomplishment as a monumental milestone.

“A good part of the nation’s press went wild over the news. Livermore’s own publicity department called the new fusion reactor ‘a shot for the ages.’ Wired magazine declared, ‘It’s Time to Fall in Love With Nuclear Fusion—Again,’ while ABC explained, ‘Scientific ‘breakthrough’ in nuclear fusion could launch new era of clean energy.’ As it happens, even on the most optimistic of timetables, we’re still 20 years away from commercial reactors, but that didn’t stop the nation’s press from proclaiming the arrival of the new fusion age.”

Such excitement and hype surrounding engineering breakthroughs are not uncommon. However, many of these hyped advancements often lack a clear purpose beyond the breakthrough itself. The pursuit of technology for the sake of advancement, rather than for the betterment of humanity, can be misguided.

The History of Hype and Failure

In his book, Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure, Vaclav Smil provides a realistic account of the history of science. He aims to temper our inflated optimism about new technologies and remind us of the broken promises and unfulfilled hopes that have characterized the field. Smil’s work serves as an antidote to irrational enthusiasm about technological change.

Smil presents nine case studies of hyped inventions that either failed to deliver on their promise or had unforeseen negative consequences. He explores the rise and fall of technologies such as CFCs, leaded gasoline, DDT, blimps, hydrogen airships, nuclear fission, and supersonic flight. He also examines three much-hyped breakthroughs that never materialized: trains in vacuum tubes, nitrogen-fixing cereals, and fusion energy.

While Smil’s skepticism about hyped claims is valid, he tends to overlook the genuine progress that has been made through imperfect solutions. Progression from bad to less bad is a natural part of historical development.

Seeking Meaningful Innovation

Smil suggests that inventions should focus on improving the human condition with minimal long-term impact on the environment. He advocates for prioritizing fundamental aspects of human life before pursuing extravagant advancements. However, these abstract suggestions may not generate the necessary momentum for technological progress.

While Smil’s book highlights the shortcomings of inventions and innovations, it fails to recognize the potential positive impact of ambitious projects like supersonic flight and commercial space travel. These endeavors can inspire the next generation of engineers and scientists, even if they are accompanied by hype. Hype, it turns out, can be beneficial in certain contexts.

Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure by Vaclav Smil is a thought-provoking commentary on the pitfalls of exaggerated claims in the field of technology. It sheds light on the importance of critically evaluating advancements and considering their long-term consequences. However, it is essential to recognize that hype can still play a role in driving progress and attracting talent to crucial disciplines.

Matthew Phillips is a doctoral student in aerospace engineering at North Carolina State University.