Democrats Who Were Counting On Demographics Being Destiny Had It All Wrong

Democrats have long argued that “demographics are destiny,” meaning that the nation’s growing minority and immigrant population will ensure the Democrat Party’s long-term political dominance in America. But Hispanic voters in Florida delivered a powerful rebuttal to such an assertion, solidifying Florida’s transformation into a red state Tuesday night by helping reelect Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio by landslide margins. For those who have paid attention, Hispanic voters’ shift to the political right is not a one-time outlier but has been part of a decade-long trend.

The U.S. Census Bureau predicted that by 2050, Asians, Hispanics, Africans, and other minorities would make up most of the population. Democrats were convinced that such a demographic trend would cement their political destiny because their party had the monopoly of minority votes. In his book, “40 More Years: How Democrats Will Rule the Next Generation,” Democratic strategist James Carville declared that America’s demographic trend would keep Republicans out of power and Democrats in control for years to come.  

President Obama’s two presidential election victories seemed to affirm the Democrats’ “demographics are destiny” assertion. Obama won his first presidential election in 2008 by winning a combined 80 percent of minority votes. For his reelection in 2012, Obama captured 93 percent of African American votes, 71 percent of Hispanic votes, and 71 percent of Asian American votes. 

Minority voters also went to bat for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. About 79 percent of Asian American voters, 88 percent of African Americans, and 66 percent of Latinos supported Clinton. 

In recent years, however, the Democrat Party’s hold on minority voters has waned, owing mainly to the party’s ideological shift and taking extreme positions on social and cultural issues. Ideologically, socialist talking heads such as Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats in the Senate, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have become dominant voices in the Democratic Party and pulled it further left. Hispanic and Asian voters who lived or had family members who lived under socialistic regimes were alarmed by the Democratic Party’s lurch into socialism.

On social and cultural issues, many found the Democratic Party’s emphasis on skin color over meritocracy, and equal outcome over equal opportunity, un-American and divisive. Those socially conservative minorities have also become uncomfortable with Democrats’ extreme positions on cultural issues, such as no-restriction, on-demand abortion, teaching sexually explicit materials to children, and indoctrinating them with critical race theory.

As the Democrat Party moved to the far-left, minority voters shifted to the right. While Democrats’ policies and extreme positions turned them off, minorities appreciated Trump’s pro-growth economic policies, which resulted in a booming economy and all-time lows in unemployment rates during Trump’s first term. A flourishing economy and Trump’s willingness to fight back against cultural issues enabled him to make in-roads with minority voters in the 2020 presidential election. 

Polls show Trump won 19 percent of black men’s votes, a 6 percent increase from 2016. About 34 percent of Asian Americans voted for Trump, a 7 percent increase from 2016. Trump’s performance among Hispanic voters was the most exceptional.