Democrats see momentum push as voters double primary turnout
Teh piece discusses how Democratic turnout in the 2026 Senate primary elections is rising in several states, while Republican turnout is generally weaker, with Texas as the notable exception where turnout increased for both parties and the race remains competitive.
– Arkansas: Republican incumbent Tom Cotton won the primary with about 82.1% of the vote; GOP turnout fell roughly 34% from 2022. Democratic turnout rose about 18.8%, with Hallie Shoffner winning the Democratic primary with 78.6%.
– Illinois: Democratic turnout jumped about 34.7% from 2022 because Tammy Duckworth did not face a primary challenger in 2022; Juliana Stratton won the Democratic nod for Senate, backed by a $5 million donation from Gov. JB pritzker, as the race drew about 1.15 million voters. republican turnout declined by about half compared with 2022.
– Mississippi: Republican turnout fell about 9.82% from 2018, while Democratic turnout surged about 52.4%.Republicans still had more voters with Cindy Hyde-Smith on the ballot against Democrats.
– North Carolina: Republican turnout dropped about 18.4% since 2022, while Democratic turnout rose about 33.29%. About 624,000 Republicans and 825,000 Democrats voted in the primaries, setting up a general-election match between Roy Cooper and Michael Whatley. Sabato’s Crystal Ball labeled the contest a toss-up.
– Texas: Turnout rose for both parties, with roughly 1.57 million Republican and 2.07 million Democratic primary voters. The Texas Democratic contest drew prominent figures like james Talarico and Jasmine Crockett, who more than doubled the previous midterm primary turnout in the state. Analysts cautioned against overstating the boost, noting Texas’s nonpartisan registration can magnify top-ticket race effects. Sabato still forecast the general election as Likely republican, even after a competitive runoff between john Cornyn and Ken Paxton.
the report portrays a wave of increased Democratic primary engagement in several states and a mixed to weaker Republican showing in most, highlighted by Texas’s unusually high turnout and competitive dynamics.
Democrats see momentum push as voters double primary turnout
Democratic turnout in the 2026 Senate primary elections is up across the board compared to recent midterm years, while Republicans have largely struggled to attract voters to the polls in each state, except Texas, so far.
State Rep. James Talarico swept headlines in early March after beating Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in Texas’s Democratic Senate primary, with the race drawing a massive voter turnout. Talarico and Crockett more than doubled the number of voters who showed up for the state’s last midterm-year Senate race.
But it’s not just the Lone Star State pulling in big numbers for Democrats.
The voter turnout for Democrats increased by about 34.7% in Illinois from the 2022 Senate primary and by about 52.4% in Mississippi from the 2018 Senate primary. Among Republican Senate primaries so far in 2026, the only state to see an increase in turnout from the 2022 or 2018 Senate midterm elections was Texas, which had an increase in turnout of about 1.59%.
Here’s a look at where voter primary turnout stood in each of the states where 2026 primaries have taken place so far, according to numbers from Ballotpedia:
Arkansas
A turnout of 229,045 Arkansas voters cast ballots in the 2026 Republican Senate primary, where incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AK) won with 82.1% of the vote. Republican turnout in Arkansas decreased by about 34% from the 2022 total of 347,556 ballots during the 2022 primary, in which incumbent Sen. John Boozman (R-AK) won with 58% of the vote.
In deep-red Arkansas, Democratic voter turnout increased by about 18.8% from the 2022 midterm primaries to the 2026 midterm primaries. About 109,253 Democratic voters cast ballots in this year’s primary, in a race that farmer and conservationist Hallie Shoffner won with 78.6% of the vote.
Republicans have consistently held quite a margin over Democrats in general elections in Arkansas. President Donald Trump won the state with 64.2% of the vote to former Vice President Kamala Harris’s 33.5% in the 2024 presidential election.
Illinois
In Illinois, Democrats saw a 34.7% increase in voter turnout in this week’s 2026 Senate primary compared to the last 2022 midterm Senate election. The caveat here is that incumbent Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) did not have a primary challenger in 2022, so there was a natural dip in primary voter turnout.
This year’s race drew many eyes and voters on its own, given its packed field, test of Gov. JB Pritzker’s (D-IL) influence, and major spending.
Backed by a $5 million donation from Pritzker, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton won the Democratic election as the race brought in 1,154,176 voters.
Republican voter turnout in Illinois, however, decreased by about half this year compared to the 2022 Senate primary, with around 352,601 Republican voters showing up at the polls in 2026, compared to 714,631 in 2022.
In the deep blue state, Harris took the 2024 presidential race with 54.8% of the vote compared to Trump’s 43.8%.
Mississippi
In Mississippi’s 2026 Senate primary election, Republicans saw a decrease of around 9.82% in voter turnout from the 2018 midterm primaries, while Democrats saw a 52.4% increase.
Still, more Republican voters turned out for the Senate primaries, garnering 141,731 voters with incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) on the ballot, compared to 134,013 Democratic voters who showed up.
Trump took the Magnolia State in the 2024 presidential election, garnering 61.6% of the vote compared to Harris’s 37.3%.
North Carolina
Republican voter turnout from the 2022 Senate primaries to the 2026 Senate primaries decreased by about 18.4% in North Carolina, while Democratic turnout increased by about 33.29%.
623,931 Republicans came out to vote in the 2026 primaries, while 824,740 Democrats hit the polls in the Tar Heel State. The primaries produced a general election matchup between former North Carolina Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley.
The University of Virginia’s election forecaster, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, rated the matchup a toss-up on March 4 as Cooper and Whatley vie to replace retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). Trump took the Tar Heel State in 2024, winning 51% of the vote with a turnout of 2,898,423 voters.
Texas
Texas saw voter turnout increase across the board in the 2026 Senate primaries, with about 1,565,353 Republicans and 2,073,750 Democrats casting ballots.
However, some pundits say Democrats should be cautious about celebrating the massive bump in Democratic turnout for Talarico and Crockett compared to the 1,036,467 voters who cast ballots for Beto O’Rourke.
DEMOCRATS ENJOY EDGE ON VOTER TURNOUT IN BOOST FOR 2026 ELECTIONS
“One should be careful not to overread that outcome. Texas does not have partisan registration, so voters tend to swarm toward the party that has the more interesting top-of-the-ticket race,” senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, Henry Olsen wrote in a Washington Post op-ed.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball has forecasted the race as “Likely Republican” even before the runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton. Trump took Texas in 2024 with 56.1% of the vote, mobilizing 6,393,597 voters, over 1.558 million more than Harris.
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