Democrats target Republican Rep. Mike Garcia’s House seat in pivotal election: Poll

EXCLUSIVE — Democrats are eyeing the California House seat held by Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) as a key pickup opportunity in November, targeting the district as the party seeks to claw back control of the lower chamber next year.

Democrats are confident their candidate, former NASA chief of staff George Whitesides, will beat Garcia, pointing to internal polling that shows the Democrat with a slight advantage over the incumbent. With no prior knowledge of either candidate, 47% of voters in California’s 27th House District said they would elect Whitesides over Garcia, according to internal polling commissioned by the Whitesides campaign.

Only 44% said they’d reelect Garcia, according to the poll, which was first shared with the Washington Examiner.

“This poll made clear what we already know: voters are rejecting Rep. Mike Garcia and his far-right legislative record. Before any communication about George, voters in this district already support him by a three-point margin,” Whitsides campaign spokeswoman Emma Harris said in a statement. “Garcia is unpopular in this district, while we have a campaign built to hold him accountable, flip this district, and retake control of the U.S. House.”

The poll also finds Garcia with a -2 favorability rating, with 42% of voters finding him unfavorable compared to just 40% who say the opposite, according to the survey. The Impact Research poll surveyed 650 voters between April 12-18, which included a sample of 100 Latino voters.

The race for Garcia’s seat is expected to be one of the most competitive elections in the 2024 election and is rated as a “toss up” by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

It’s also expected to be one of the more expensive races this cycle as Whitesides has positioned himself with the largest cash advantage of any candidate challenging an incumbent nationwide. Whitesides has over $3 million on hand as of the end of March, compared to Garcia who has $1.7 million — giving him a $1.3 million advantage over the incumbent.

However, Garcia could have an incumbent advantage after easily winning the state’s primary election in March with more than 50% of the vote, garnering 54.9% of voter support. That came in above Whitesides, who came in at second place with only 32.8% of the vote.

But those numbers could easily shift in Whitesides’s direction as a third candidate, Steve Hill, split Democratic votes in the primary. California operates its primary elections by putting all candidates regardless of party, on the same ballot, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the general election.

With Whitesides and Garcia now facing each other head to head, the race is too close to call heading into November. The Washington Examiner contacted a spokesperson for Garcia’s campaign.

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All 435 seats are up for grabs in 2024 as Republicans seek to hold their slim majority in the lower chamber. Of these, 42 are considered competitive, with most of those held by Democrats, giving the GOP a slight advantage as it prepares for the next election cycle.

However, of the 42 competitive seats, 18 are held by Republicans in districts that voted for Biden in 2020, compared to just five Democrats who must defend their seats in districts carried by former President Donald Trump. That means there are just enough vulnerable GOP-held seats to keep things competitive heading into the next election cycle.