Cornyn’s blowout loss exposes polling miss in Texas primary
Sen. John cornyn’s loss in Texas’s Senate GOP runoff showed that pre-election polls didn’t fully reflect the race’s reality: he was defeated by more than 27 points and trailed Attorney General Ken Paxton, 36.2% to 63.8%, according to the Associated Press.
An average of three polls compiled by 270 To Win had predicted Cornyn would lose by about 8 points. Among six May polls compiled by the New York Times, only one projected a double-digit loss, and the closest pre-election survey (Quantus Insights) had Paxton winning by just over 9 points.
The article suggests Paxton’s stronger-than-expected performance may have been driven by a late endorsement from President Donald Trump, along with a major drop in turnout for Cornyn compared with the March primary. In March, Cornyn won more votes than Paxton (910,382 to 878,564), but in the runoff Paxton captured 885,949 ballots while Cornyn received 501,725.
Paxton will face Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the general election,with forecasts calling the race highly competitive.
Sen. John Cornyn’s (R-TX) performance in the Texas Senate GOP primary election on Tuesday indicated polling for one of the country’s most closely watched races failed to sufficiently capture the political dynamic.
Cornyn lost the runoff primary election by a more-than 27-point margin, as he trails Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 36.2% to 63.8%, according to the Associated Press.
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Though polls leading up to the election showed Cornyn trailing, most failed to accurately predict the sweeping scale of the incumbent’s loss.
An average of three polls compiled by 270 To Win predicted that Cornyn would lose the nomination by roughly an 8-point margin.
Of the six polls released in May compiled by the New York Times, only one handed Cornyn a double-digit loss. The last poll conducted before the election, a Quantus Insights survey, predicted Paxton would win, but by just over 9 points.
Several factors could have led to Paxton’s higher-than-expected performance, including a last-minute endorsement from President Donald Trump and low voter turnout for Cornyn.
“President Trump is the leader of our party, and his endorsement is the most powerful force in politics,” Paxton said at his victory party. “When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn’t listen.”
In addition, turnout for Cornyn in Tuesday’s runoff was far lower than the initial March primary, marking a distinct downturn in fortunes for the incumbent. Paxton took the gains from Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) being eliminated in the March election, while Cornyn appeared to take a hit from over 779,000 fewer votes being cast on Tuesday than in March.
In March, Cornyn received 910,382 votes, Paxton garnered 878,564, and Hunt received 293,250. In all, 2,166,910 votes were counted.
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On Tuesday, Paxton captured 885,949 ballots, and Cornyn received 501,725 votes. In all, 1,387,674 ballots were counted.
Paxton will face off against Texas state Rep. James Talarico in the general election. Polls promise the race will be fiercely competitive, as Talarico vies to become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in three decades. In the first two hours following Paxton’s victory over Cornyn on Tuesday, Talarico hauled in $600,000, the strongest two hours of fundraising of his entire campaign.
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