Experts warn that China may invade Taiwan unless they believe peaceful unification is achievable.
China’s Communist Leadership Could Invade Taiwan by Mid-Century, Experts Warn
According to experts, China’s communist leadership will invade Taiwan if it believes unification with the island is not possible by mid-century. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) must see a chance for unification in order to avoid starting a war for Taiwan, says Chad Sbragia, a research analyst at the Institute for Defense Analyses think tank.
“It’s up to China to determine the progress toward unification. But, without that, conflict is extremely likely,” Mr. Sbragia stated during a forum at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.
“I just don’t understand how this comes out any other way [than war] absent a significant change in conditions,” Mr. Sbragia emphasized.
The CCP asserts that Taiwan is part of China and must be united with the mainland at all costs. However, Taiwan has maintained de facto independence since 1949.
CCP leader Xi Jinping has linked the unification of China and Taiwan to his goal of making China the world’s leading superpower by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the CCP’s takeover.
Because of this, Mr. Sbragia warns that as the 2049 deadline approaches or if unification becomes unattainable, the regime will become increasingly likely to initiate a war for Taiwan.
Conflict Could Be ‘Inevitable’
The 2049 goal creates a “timeline for conflict,” a countdown where hostilities become more likely the longer peaceful unification is delayed.
“Every day that we move forward, this problem gets worse. It doesn’t get better,” Mr. Sbragia stated.
Importantly, Mr. Sbragia added that the CCP would not be deterred from military action even if victory seems unlikely.
Mr. Sbragia, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, recalled Chinese military leadership expressing this sentiment during his tenure.
“Don’t assume that because we’ll lose, we won’t go,” Mr. Sbragia paraphrased Chinese military leadership.
These circumstances create a situation of “progressively worsening conditions over time” for China, Taiwan, and the United States.
“China’s adherence to a timeline for unification will ultimately take priority over war avoidance, and until then, Taiwan will remain a source of chronic crisis,” Mr. Sbragia warned.
Washington Must Affirm Support for Peace
To address this, the United States should work to convince China that peaceful unification is possible or, at the very least, not signal that it is impossible, according to Bonnie Glaser, a managing director for the German Marshall Fund think tank.
“I agree that if Xi Jinping believes there is a real possibility of permanent loss of Taiwan, he would go to war whether the military is ready or not,” Ms. Glaser stated.
“It is unwise for both Taiwan and the United States to pursue policies that would lead Xi Jinping to conclude that achieving a mutually acceptable outcome is impossible.”
Similarly, she warned that the CCP would invade Taiwan regardless of cost if it believes the island is on a clear path to declaring independence and that the United States supports it.
In such circumstances, Mr. Xi would feel compelled to “go to war.”
However, Ms. Glaser noted that there is still a tenuous belief within the CCP that peaceful unification is possible, meaning that war is not yet inevitable.
“If Xi Jinping still holds on to the idea that there is a pathway toward integration, then ultimately he will be making a calculation. What are the costs? What are the benefits?”
“We don’t want him to conclude that it is absolutely impossible to achieve unification peacefully or without force,” she added.
Despite this, Ms. Glaser expressed concern that the Biden administration has not affirmed its support for any peaceful resolution to the crisis, deviating from the precedent set by previous administrations.
“In prior administrations, the United States has said that we would support any outcome that is peacefully negotiated between the two sides of the Strait,” Ms. Glaser said.
“This administration has not made that statement. And I think that’s problematic.”
Sbragia warned. “We’ll lose, but we’ll go.”
China’s Communist Leadership Could Invade Taiwan by Mid-Century, Experts Warn
According to experts, China’s communist leadership may decide to invade Taiwan if it believes that unification with the island is not possible by mid-century. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) must perceive a chance for unification in order to avoid initiating a war for Taiwan, as stated by Chad Sbragia, a research analyst at the Institute for Defense Analyses think tank.
During a forum at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, Mr. Sbragia emphasized, ”It’s up to China to determine the progress toward unification. But, without that, conflict is extremely likely.”
In the eyes of the CCP, Taiwan is considered part of China and must be reunited with the mainland at any cost. However, Taiwan has maintained de facto independence since 1949.
CCP leader Xi Jinping has linked the unification of China and Taiwan to his goal of making China the world’s leading superpower by 2049, which marks the 100th anniversary of the CCP’s takeover.
Due to this link, Mr. Sbragia warns that as the 2049 deadline approaches or if unification becomes unattainable, the regime will become increasingly prone to initiating a war for Taiwan. This creates a “timeline for conflict,” with hostilities becoming more likely the longer peaceful unification is delayed.
“Every day that we move forward, this problem gets worse. It doesn’t get better,” Mr. Sbragia stated.
Importantly, Mr. Sbragia added that the CCP would not be deterred from military action even if victory seems unlikely. He recalled Chinese military leadership expressing this sentiment during his tenure as the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for China.
“Don’t assume that because we’ll lose, we won’t go,” Mr
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