California exodus and Latino voters altering Arizona’s politics
Arizona: From Red to Purple
A once solidly red state has turned purple in recent elections because of an increase in moderate to liberal voters leaving California, and an increase in voters of color that tend to lean Democrat, experts have claimed.
Arizona, one of the fastest-growing states in the country, has undergone a significant political shift. Previously predominantly conservative, the state witnessed a turning point with the narrow victory of then-Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) in 2018. This victory set off a chain reaction, leading to the election of a Democratic governor, the flipping of a long-held Republican senate seat, and ultimately helping President Joe Biden secure the White House in subsequent elections.
The Californian Influence
“A lot of that growth is Californians,” Arizona-based Republican consultant Stan Barnes told Fox News. ”Even though they’re leaving the People’s Republic of California over its tax and regulatory restrictions, they still carry some of their progressive politics with them, and it shows in the election results.”
Despite the state leaning further to the left since 2018, Republicans are determined to reclaim its red roots in 2024. Their focus is on flipping Sinema’s seat, especially as the senator has not yet revealed her own reelection plans. The biggest challenger to Sinema so far is Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ).
The Role of Candidate Quality
Barnes claimed that candidate quality has played a significant role in Democrats’ recent success. He noted that Democratic candidates have largely run centrist campaigns, appealing to a broader base. On the other hand, Republicans have often put forward candidates who were too far right.
“When Democrats run statewide in Arizona, they run as center-right as they possibly can,” Barnes said. ”If you heard them campaigning, you’d think they’re Republicans. They have had good candidates the past two cycles, and we’ve put up some folks that were easily marginalized.”
Another Arizona strategist attributed conservative shortcomings in the state to the failure of candidates to appeal to their own base. This strategist claimed that conservative voters are turning to the Democratic Party due to fringe candidates from the GOP.
“These vitriolic, tin foil hat-wearing, election-denying Republican maniacs are not succeeding in Arizona, and that’s not a result of increased power among Democrats,” Democratic strategist Stacy Pearson said. “It’s that they’re not appealing to their own base; they’re not appealing to the Republicans in Arizona.”
The Latino Vote
Barnes sees hope in Hispanic voters, who were largely expected to vote Democrat. While Latino and Hispanic voters still lean more liberal, support for Democrats has dwindled.
“It turns out the Latino voter did not get that memo. And they don’t necessarily perform that way or register that way,” Barnes said.
Both strategists emphasized that the state is still conservative at its core. However, they warned Democrats that centrists have fared well in recent elections, while liberal candidates have struggled. Pearson cautioned that anyone who believes the state has become more progressive “do so at their own peril.”
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