Border Patrol prepares for migrant surge after Title 42 ends.

Brownsville, Texas: The Calm Before the Storm at the Southern Border

On Wednesday night, migrants from around the world lined up along the banks of the Rio Grande in Matamoros, Mexico, and shared libations to the sound of boisterous music. “They’re having a party,” remarked one Border Patrol officer stationed at Camp Monument, which is located just a few hundred feet away from Mexican soil.

Once a public golf course, Camp Monument is now a massive command post staffed with dozens of troops and staff from the Texas National Guard, Customs and Border Protection, and Department of Homeland Security.

The End of Title 42

Camp Monument was eerily silent when the clock struck midnight. Title 42—a public health rule that allowed immigration authorities to quickly deport illegal border crossers—had officially ended. But instead of the expected deluge of aliens, only a few dozen swam across the river now lined with barbed wire thanks to last-minute preparations by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R.).

The anti-climactic start to a post-Title 42 United States left many in the media and in the federal government scratching their heads. But others, including law enforcement stationed at the border, said there is little reason to believe the calm will last.

Record-High Crossings

The end of Title 42 still resulted in record-high crossings. Authorities apprehended more than 11,600 aliens from Thursday evening through Friday morning, internal Department of Homeland Security figures obtained by the Washington Free Beacon show.

That figure is lower than the 16,000 some in the government predicted, but is still the most in U.S. history. The week of May 7 saw more than 83,000 illegal border crossings, another record.

The Cartels Are Waiting

There were nearly 24,500 aliens in Customs and Border Protection custody, as of Friday afternoon, an 89 percent increase over the 90-day average. The White House anticipates that agents could have 45,000 aliens in custody by the end of the month, virtually all of whom would be single men and children.

Authorities have encountered more than 5 million aliens since President Joe Biden took office. At least another 1.4 million illegal aliens have entered the United States without apprehension.

Human smuggling is a multibillion-dollar industry, the officials said, and there are no indications the cartels plan on shuttering their business any time soon. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said Sunday that “it is too early” to assume the current lull in border crossings, which dropped 50 percent Friday through Saturday in Texas, are permanent.

For the time being, law enforcement credits Abbott for minimizing the surge in the state. Aside from the barbed wire, the Texas governor deployed the Texas Tactical Border Force, a specially trained unit of the National Guard, to hotspots along the border days before the end of Title 42.

The Future of the Southern Border

Troops stood and physically blocked migrants from crossing the border, while others yelled over a loudspeaker in Spanish that trespassers would be deported. Mayorkas implied last week that Abbott’s actions could be unlawful, though his agency has yet to take any legal action.

“It’s amazing what a difference putting troops with rifles on the border will make,” said one senior Department of Homeland Security official. “Just think if we did this two years ago.”

Arizona, whose Democratic governor Katie Hobbs neglected to take the same kind of measures as her Texan counterpart, bore the brunt of the post-Title 42 surge. By Friday afternoon, some Customs and Border Protection holding facilities in Arizona were at 200 percent capacity.

That led the liberal city of Nogales, Arizona, to take a play from a red state governor and, according to photos shared with the Free Beacon, move aliens on chartered buses to unknown locations. Hundreds of aliens were released into Yuma, Arizona, without a court date on Saturday.

The Bottom Line

The situation at the southern border is complex and ever-changing. While the end of Title 42 has resulted in record-high crossings, law enforcement officials warn that the calm may not last. The cartels are waiting and biding their time, and human smuggling remains a multibillion-dollar industry. Only time will tell what the future holds for the southern border.