Bookies: Mar-a-Lago Raid Fails to Damage Trump’s 2024 Odds

With less than four months remaining until the midterms, the U.S. presidential election odds board has seen massive movement with Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis tied atop the board at +300. 

Meanwhile, incumbent president Joe Biden has dropped to third place at +600, as low approval ratings continue to hamper his presidency. 

With the next election still two years away, there are plenty of candidates to consider, so let’s look at the election 2024 odds and see who has the best betting odds of becoming the next president of the United States.

Odds to win the 2024 US presidential election

Election Winner Odds to win 2024 US election Implied probability
Donald Trump +300 25.00%
Ron DeSantis +300 25.00%
Joe Biden +600 14.29%
Kamala Harris +1,400 6.67%
Gavin Newsom +1,400 6.67%
Mike Pence +1,800 5.26%
Nikki Haley +2,500 3.85%
Pete Buttigieg +2,500 3.85%
Michelle Obama  +3,500 2.78%
Dwayne Johnson +4,000 2.44%
Hillary Clinton +4,000 2.44%
Elizabeth Warren +4,500 2.17%
Mike Pompeo +5,000 1.96%
Tucker Carlson +5,000 1.96%
Ted Cruz +5,000 1.96%
Kristi Noem +5,000 1.96%
Tom Cotton +6,500 1.52%
Josh Hawley +6,500 1.52%
Jeff Bezos +6,500 1.52%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +6,500 1.52%
Tulsi Gabbard +8,000 1.23%
Amy Klobuchar +8,000 1.23%
Ivanka Trump +8,000 1.23%
Gretchen Whitmer +10,000 0.99%
Bernie Sanders +10,000 0.99%
Kanye West +10,000 0.99%
Andrew Yang +10,000 0.99%
Mitt Romney +10,000 0.99%
Candace Owens +10,000 0.99%
John Kasich +10,000 0.99%
Larry Hogan +10,000 0.99%
Michael Bloomberg +10,000 0.99%
Chris Christie +10,000 0.99%
Greg Abbott +10,000 0.99%
Marco Rubio +10,000 0.99%
George Clooney +10,000 0.99%
Dan Crenshaw +10,000 0.99%
Paul Ryan +15,000 0.66%
Megan Markle +15,000 0.66%
Rand Paul +15,000 0.66%
Joe Rogan +15,000 0.66%
Mark Zuckerberg +20,000 0.50%
Andrew Cuomo +20,000 0.50%
Susan Rice +20,000 0.50%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on August 22, 2022.

2024 US election win probability over time

Favorites to win the 2024 US presidential election

Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650.

Those odds have shifted massively, and Trump is now tied with DeSantis for the lead as 2024 U.S. presidential election favorite at +300 (implied probability = 25.00%). Biden has now dropped to third place at +600 (14.29%), while Harris has plummeted all the way to fourth place at +1,400 (6.67%).

Other presidential betting favorites for 2024 include governor of California Gavin Newsom (+1,400, 6.67%) Trump’s VP Mike Pence (+1,800, 5.26%), and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, who are tied at +2,500 (3.85%).

Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Trump had been installed at +250 last month and has moved to +300 after the FBI’s search warrant at his Florida home.

Although the former POTUS has yet to formally announce he will campaign in 2024, he recently told New York Magazine that he has already made up his mind and that his “big decision” is whether to go before or after the midterms. Trump has been speaking at multiple rallies across the Midwest and South while amassing $124 million in fundraising money.

According to a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released at the end of January, Trump would dominate a hypothetical eight-person presidential primary. According to the poll, 57% of Republicans would support Trump for another White House bid, miles ahead of DeSantis (12%) and Pence (11%). 

That said, there is a growing concern that while Trump might be a shoo-in to win the Republican primary, he would have a tougher time winning the general election than other, less-polarizing candidates.

Ron DeSantis’ odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

The biggest riser on the presidential election odds board is DeSantis, who was +6,600 (1.49%) a year ago, +550 (15.38%) at the start of July, and is now at +300 (25.00%). The 43-year-old remains coy about whether he will run for President but has become a Republican firebrand figure for his laissez-faire policies during the COVID-19 pandemic and his enactment of the Stop WOKE Act.

In the annual Western Conservative Summit’s straw poll taken last month, 71% of participants said they wanted DeSantis to run for president in 2024, compared to 67% for Trump.

While in the past, Trump has suggested that DeSantis would be unlikely to run against him, things may have changed. DeSantis has now amassed more than $100 million in his fundraising coffers and has declined to ask Trump for a reelection endorsement in Florida.

With Trump having a history of handing out endorsements based on loyalty, DeSantis refusing to kiss the ring could be a sign that he’s seriously considering running against him. 

Joe Biden’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

After briefly rebounding, President Biden’s approval rating has gone up to 38% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, after previously falling to 36% in mid-July.

Biden’s latest market prices on the Smarkets exchange give him just a 12.82% chance of being re-elected in 2024.

Despite healthy growth in the US job market and relatively low levels of unemployment, the Biden regime continues to face plenty of obstacles. Chief among them are surging inflation, high fuel prices, and global supply chains still hindered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

He’s also dealing with criticism from his Democrat base, who feel like the party is losing key ground on issues like gun reform and abortion. With criticism from all sides, Biden might not even be the party nominee if the Democrats take a beating during the midterms. 

Kamala Harris’ odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

Harris has seen her odds tumble, but she remains the Democrat favorite if Biden decides not to run again. The Smarkets exchange gives her a 15.6% chance of becoming the party nominee, lower than Biden’s 27.4% but higher than third-place Newson, who sits at 11.6%.

Harris is having a rocky tenure as VP and is struggling to break ground with her two biggest projects, border migration, and national voting reform. In November, her approval rating sank to a comically low 28%, the lowest of any VP in modern memory — a list that includes Dick Cheney.

Harris was previously on the U.S. Senate and has also served as the Attorney General of California. At age 57, Harris entered her political prime and ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 before dropping out to endorse Biden.

Gavin Newsom’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

While Biden remains the Democrat favorite according to oddsmakers, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that 64% of Democratic voters want somebody other than Biden to represent them in the 2024 election. 

While a sitting president has never been defeated by a primary challenger, every president who faced a strong primary challenge went on to lose in the general election.

At 79, Biden is already the oldest president in history. If he steps down due to his age and declining popularity, younger challengers (and better communicators) like Gavin Newsom or Pete Buttigieg will emerge. 

Newsom served as the mayor of San Francisco from 2004 to 2011 and has been the governor of California since 2019. He has surged up the board from +6,000 (1.64%) earlier this year and is now up to +1,400 (6.67%). 

Suppose the Democratic party wants to move on from candidates that were born before Willie Mays was a rookie (Biden, Hillary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders were all born in the 1940s). In that case, Newsom or Buttigieg could be excellent value plays.

AOC’s odds of winning the 2024 US Presidential Election

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as one of the brightest young stars of the Democratic Party but has seen her odds fall from +3,300 (2.94%) in the New Year to +5,000 (1.94%) in March, and she has now plummeted all the way to +6,500 (1.52%). AOC currently serves as a U.S. House of Representatives member, representing New York’s 14th district.

The politically savvy 32-year-old has built a massive online following and will be turning the requisite age of presidential eligibility just before the 2024 election.

Her biggest obstacle may in fact be her own party, with her more progressive views likely to alienate some of her colleagues unless they soften over time.

She recently hit the news for criticizing the Biden administration for not doing more to help student debt. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi’s new book “This Will Not Pass” accuses Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives of vying to be “queen bee.” AOC could run the risk of being another Bernie Sanders if she can’t convince the moderates that she’s willing to make concessions on key issues.

The Rock’s odds of winning the 2024 US presidential election

What would election betting odds be without some celebrity long-shots? For one, Kanye West emerged as a massive underdog candidate in the last election. Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson is also currently sitting at a relatively high +4,000 (2.44%), tied with former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

The former WWE champion and current action movie star has shown interest in politics and even stated in a Vanity Fair interview that he has done research into what that could entail.

However, he’s also been very frank about his lack of experience in politics saying, “You know, at the end of the day, I don’t know the first thing about politics…I don’t know the first thing about policy.”

The Rock might be a longshot, but Trump has opened the door for future celebrity presidential candidates, especially ones oozing with charisma and money. 

2022 US midterm election betting odds

Action on the 2022 midterms is heating up as Americans head to the polls this November. The Republican party is favored to take the house and take more than 50 seats in the Senate. Be sure to check out our full 2022 U.S. election midterms article here.

Odds to win the U.S. House of Representatives

Result Odds Implied probability
Republican Majority -450 81.8%
Democrat Majority +300 25.0%

Odds courtesy of William Hill on August 18, 2022.

Odds for the number of Republican Senate seats

Result Odds Implied probability
Over 50 -120 54.55%
Exactly 50 +350 22.22%
Under 50 +200 33.33%

Betting on the election in the United States

No U.S. states allow for election betting, so legal betting sites in the United States don’t offer election odds to Americans. However, bettors in other countries can bet on the U.S. election.

Betting on the US election from Canada

Canadians have plenty of options when it comes to placing wagers on the U.S. election. Legal betting sites in Ontario are permitted to offer election odds, while bettors in other provinces can also place bets via Canadian betting sites

US election betting odds FAQs

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