Regional banks face challenges as consumer confidence declines.

Regional Banks Struggle Amid Banking Turmoil

Regional banks are facing intense pressure as they struggle to regain their footing amidst continued banking sector turmoil. Investors are weighing whether the worst of the banking woes are in the rearview mirror, causing regional bank stocks to be mixed on Friday.

Are We Past the Worst Turmoil in the Industry?

PacWest Bancorp, which has seen a whopping 37% drop in the past five days alone and 82% in the past six months, reported that customers had yanked about 9.5% of their total deposits out of the bank amid the uncertainty, causing shares to tank. First Horizon Bank’s stock was down about 1.4% on Friday and is down 46% in the past month. Western Alliance stock was up slightly, and Zions Bancorp was down 1.7%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF, which tracks the performance of regional banks, was down about 0.5% on Friday.

The most recent bank to fail was First Republic Bank, which was announced to be taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and sold to JPMorgan Chase. The banking chaos comes as lawmakers work to craft a deal to raise the debt ceiling in what is sorting out to be the most consequential battle over the federal debt limit in more than a decade.

The Economic Outlook

The debt ceiling woes, coupled with the banking sector turmoil and the Federal Reserve’s repeated interest rate hikes, have made a recession more likely. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers recently suggested the odds of a recession are at 70% in the next year, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index predicts a recession will hit sometime in the middle of the year, and the Fed’s probability modeling indicates about a 68% chance of a recession in the next 12 months.

Consumer Sentiment Index Plunges

The stock market more broadly was in the red on Friday following news that consumer sentiment has fallen. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to 57.7 in May, down from 63.5 in April, according to preliminary numbers released Friday. The drop represents a weighty 9.1% decline from last month and about a 1.2% dip from a year ago. “Long-run expectations slid by 16% as well, indicating that consumers are worried that any economic downturn will not be brief,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, in a statement. “Throughout the current inflationary episode, consumers have shown resilience under strong labor markets, but their anticipation of a recession will lead them to pull back when signs of weakness emerge.”

What’s Next?

The situation has hurt the economic outlook. The so-called X-date, the point at which the Treasury will not be able to make payments on incoming bills on time and in full, is fast approaching — possibly as soon as next month. Republicans are hoping to score big concessions on spending, but Democrats say they want to lift the limit without any spending reforms.

It’s a challenging time for regional banks, and the industry is facing a lot of uncertainty. Only time will tell what the future holds for these financial institutions.