Austin Bay: 2023’s Strategic Challenges: Introducing Large Debt

When 2022 began, Vladimir Putin’s Russia was fighting a slow but deadly war with Ukraine — a war to restore what Putin believed was Russia’s historically legitimate empire. In this slow war, Russia could control the levels of battlefield violence and assess the economic costs. Russia could foresee the destruction of Ukraine’s eastern regions and let go of most international economic and political sanctions.

As 2023 begins Vlad’s Russia is locked in a grinding war that Russia is definitely not winning — and arguably, Ukraine is.

How important is a year?

The obvious answer is yes at the level of Russia and Ukraine. Russia is paying huge costs in lives and rubles to Putin’s misjudgments and megalomania. Both were discussed in my column last week.

Globally, however, human affairs continue to be plagued by a list of Big Deadly Problems. There are no easy answers.

A column I wrote in January 2022 addressed the following: “four strategic challenges to the post-World War II international order.” This is a decent introduction for an essay. However, one week later, I decided that it needed qualification.

These are the four challenges. I have pointed out that they are not in a ranked order. All of them have enormous significance. They are not distinct. They intertwine.

Challenge No. 1. Imperialist powers bent on restoring lost empires and fulfilling the lofty dreams of their current leaders. 2023 Comment: Russia in Ukraine, China threatening Taiwan.

Challenge No. 2: Fake states, failing states, and fleeing states. Flailing can also mean collapsing. Local thugs hold the capital, U.N. seat, and everything else in fake states. 2023 comment: Mexico has been exposed in the past year as a borderline flailing country. (Pun intended.)

Challenge No. 3: Radical, militant and megalomaniacal dictatorships seeking weapons of mass destruction. 2023 Comment: Iran is getting closer to a nuclear weapon, but the Iranian regime seems weak (see Challenge No. 2).

Challenge No. 4. The pervasive corruption by powerful but venal individuals, and venal institutions within democratic nations. These corruptions are so damaging to these countries that effective and timely political and military responses to Challenges Nos. 1. through 3. are systemically delayed, undermined, or immobilized.

2023 comment: 2022’s Twitter revelations revealed extraordinary corruption within the U.S.A, particularly in the FBI and legacy media. Hunter Biden’s laptop does not contain Russian disinformation. It is hard evidence that exposes corruption at the highest levels American governance.

U.S. major 2023 The U.S. Diplomatic Penalty For Corruption: Hunter Biden’s blatant corruption is a real threat to national security. If defending Ukraine is a U.S. security interest — and I think it is — then the Biden family’s corrupt activities and the government’s failure to penalize their corruption undermines American efforts to address Ukrainian economic corruption.

Why then did I make the decision to tackle the challenges of the “international order” A finer goal is needed for sentence

The key word is “order.”

The post-WWII international system was not able to survive. “order” Challenges No. 2, 3, and 4. 2, 3 and 4. The Challenge No. Challenge No. 1, the great grab for empire, was stopped by the Cold War’s nuclear standoff. Little hot wars were waged on the periphery — Southeast Asia, Central and South America, Africa, the Middle East.

It is time to present Challenge No. 5: Big Debt. It is justified by the 2022 hyperinflation and excess government budget.

Over the past two decades, Greece has been Big Debt’s poster child. Greece’s governments broke fiscal agreements and borrowed money they couldn’t repay. The debt was no longer sustainable.

Based on GDP, resources and — even post-COVID-19 — work ethic, America has yet to face an appalling Greece-like debt crisis.

Communist China is a threat to the world. Despite this, America’s structural debt is the greatest threat it faces.

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