ANALYSIS: We’ve Crunched The Numbers. Midterms May Look Really Bad For Joe Biden

Midterm elections are almost always bad for the party in power, but recent polling trends show that President Joe Biden’s midterm elections could be especially disastrous for the Democratic Party.

The president’s party has lost seats in virtually every midterm election in U.S. history, with the exceptions of 1902, 1934, 1998 and 2002, according to Sean Trende, writing for RealClearPolitics. The key to the severity of that loss has most often come down to two major factors: The extent to which the president’s party overperformed in the presidential election cycle and the president’s own approval rating.