Kentucky Governor’s race may indicate Trump’s impact and Democrat opportunities in red states for 2024.

Kentucky Gubernatorial Race: A Possible Litmus Test for 2024 Elections

Weeks after the Kentucky Derby, another race in Kentucky will shine a light on the Bluegrass state as a possible litmus test for 2024’s elections. A former Trump official and the state’s Trump-endorsed attorney general will face off next Tuesday to become the GOP nominee to take on incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear.

The Candidates

Former President Donald Trump’s ambassador to Canada and then the United Nations, Kelly Craft, is up against the frontrunner and Trump-endorsed Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron. Cameron also served as a former staffer to GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and was the first Republican in 70 years to win the top law enforcement office in Kentucky. Beshear was the former Attorney General prior to running for governor in 2019.

Either Craft or Cameron could make history if they win the primary and then general election, with Craft being the first Republican woman elected to the office in Kentucky and Cameron being the first black Kentucky governor as well as the first black Republican governor in the United States.

2024 Implications

The race is one of only three gubernatorial races in 2023 that all happen to be in states that Trump won in 2020. Kentucky’s race is not only a show of Trump’s influence among Republican primary voters but a show of how vulnerable Democratic Senators could fare next year in other states Trump won in 2020.

How Beshear fares in the election could be a warning sign to Democrats seeking to retain their U.S. Senate seats in West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. With control of the U.S. Senate so close, one or two seats won or lost could make all the difference in Republicans taking back the Senate or Democrats narrowly retaining it.

The Political Derby

Beshear, the son of a former popular Kentucky governor, has remained relatively popular according to polls through his tenure, being hands-on with Kentuckians through a string of natural disasters as well as the COVID-19 pandemic.

Beshear’s regular news conferences and press releases come with the branding “Team Kentucky” updates, as do many other Government funds and websites to appeal to Kentuckians. One website set up by his administration titled “Team Eastern Kentucky Flood Relief Fund” directs people to donate for flood cleanup incurred in 2022 storms in the eastern part of the state.

Earlier this year, Beshear was coined the “most popular Democratic governor” in the country, with an approval rate also much higher than that of President Joe Biden.

Beshear does not outwardly tie himself to national Democrats, focusing more on local and state issues. In an interview with The Associated Press in late December, Beshear criticized Trump as well as Biden and made it clear he did not need nor did he seek Biden’s help in campaigning for him.

His distancing himself from the Democratic party nationally still doesn’t stop his GOP challengers from going after Beshear for some “woke” policy, such as vetoing a bill banning transgender youth from medical treatment, which was ultimately overridden by the GOP-controlled legislature.

Advertising Frenzy

The race has seen mass amounts of money spent on advertising leading up to next week’s GOP primary. The latest data shows over $10 million had been spent as of last week, according to data from AdImpact and NBC News.