All Eyes on Arizona as 5 Republicans Vie for Votes in Key Senate Primary

Political analysts across the country will be watching closely as Arizona primary election numbers begin to trickle in after polls close on Aug. 2. They’ll be especially interested to see which of the five Republican candidates for U.S. Senate emerges as the party’s nominee.

The winner will advance to challenge Democratic incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly, who was elected in a special election in 2020. Kelly doesn’t have a Democratic opponent so he automatically moves forward to face the GOP winner on Nov. 8.

As of July, the country’s go-to predictors of political races said it’s impossible to guess who might win the fall matchup, calling it a solid toss-up.

The race’s outcome is consequential for the entire country.

U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly, a Democrat from Arizona, speaks during a Senate Finance Committee hearing in Washington, on Oct. 19, 2021. (Rod Lamkey/AFP via Getty Images)

Kelly’s is one of three Democratic-held Senate seats considered up for grabs in November by forecasters. A loss for Kelly, or one of the other Democrat incumbents in the trio of toss-ups, could shift control of the Senate to Republicans.

To try to keep that from happening, Democrats from all over the country have poured money into the Arizona race. Since January 2021, Kelly has raked in a little more than $54.1 million in contributions, the second-largest amount for a federal candidate, according to Federal Election Commission records.

While the fall result in Arizona remains a nail-biting question, the Republican primary in the race appears easier to predict, based on polling data.

Tech entrepreneur and Trump endorsee Blake Masters leads the pack, finding favor with almost 28 percent of GOP voters, according to a RealClearPolitics average of polls conducted between June 7 and July 2.

Masters has energized crowds by speaking about closing the border to illegal immigrants and protecting