5 Places Where World War III Could Begin in 2023
A 19FortyFive Tradition – We Look at Where World War III Could Start As We Prepare for 2023 – In 2022The world is now closer to Great Power War, than ever before since the end the Cold War.
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Russia Launched a full-scale invasion of UkraineIt is an attack that almost immediately This resulted in sanctions being combined with direct military support for Kyiv. The United States and its allies began to pursue policies that would lead to the deaths of Russian soldiers and the destruction of Russian military gear, as well as the long-term degrading of Russia’s economy. The war has had a dramatic impact on the world stage, raising the stakes in disputes that have remained unresolved for decades.
These five areas are most at risk of the eruption of something we might be tempted call “The volcano.” “World War III.”
Ukraine
There are many things to be concerned about Russia might use nuclear weapons The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate and the government seems less motivated to restore its fortunes. However, escalation remains a concern. Russia’s inability to make progress may threaten the stability of the Putin government, inclining Moscow to contemplate dangerous escalation. Kyiv may have to take dangerous steps to end the stalemate, given its concerns about Ukraine’s long-term ability to keep the war going.
A NATO expansion remains unlikely, but possible. Russian nuclear weapons use remains unthinkable, but not impossible.
The Biden administration has been allied with its European allies. taken extraordinary care with the risks of escalation, Washington doesn’t have all the cards. Moscow or Kyiv could be open to the possibility of a wider conflict. A conflict that could turn into World War III.
Taiwan
Worry about the immediacy of war between Taiwan and China has waned a bit in the past months, in large part because of China’s catastrophic covid experience. There is no doubt that cross-strait tensions will continue to be significant. The willingness of the Biden administration Washington is concerned about the possibility of Chinese aggression and has taken risky rhetorical positions regarding Taiwan defense. At the same time, these statements (and unwise stunts such as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei) run the risk of triggering Chinese escalation.
There are good reasons to believe that there will be some warning signs of war. Just as it was at the Ukrainian border with Ukraine, Chinese preparations to conflict would be visible to all. The United States would be included in almost every conflict imaginable. very likely Japan, This would be a great power war.
Greece-Turkey
Lost in all of the discussion of the revitalization of NATO in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been a simmering crisis on the alliance’s southern flank. Over the past year tensions between Greece and Turkey have increased substantially, driven in large part by Turkey’s assertive foreign policy turn and by the domestic vulnerability of the Erdogan regime. The current tension has been triggered by disputes between Athens (and Ankara) over energy exploration in Aegean, though the territorial disagreements behind the argument have existed since decades.
It seems unlikely that NATO ally will openly attack NATO ally but past conflicts have brought these two countries to the brink. sometimes slightly beyond) notwithstanding their alliance commitments. NATO would be involved in any fight between Turkey or Greece. It would almost certainly result from some opportunistic intervention of Russia.
Korean Peninsula
In the past several months tensions between Seoul and Pyongyang have grown steadily, with North Korean provocations (often themselves driven by the Kim regime’s idiosyncratic and cryptic assessments of the international environment) incurring aggressive rhetorical responses from the South. The dynamic between these two states is driven by impatience. It seems that there is an impatience in North Korea that the world refuses it serious. despite its magnificent nuclear weapons, There is a sense of impatience in South that a country of great importance remains burdened with its inept retrograde sibling.
These tensions aren’t new, but historically they have been constrained by the Cold War and by the post-Cold War liberal international order. The first is gone, and the second may be fraying to the point that Pyongyang may feel like a moment and Seoul may have trouble finding the patience to accept the antics its neighbor. It is possible that war will quickly become more destructive than the Russia-Ukraine War. Each side could be using nuclear and conventional weapons to inflict a terrible loss.
China-India
Sporadic fighting continues between India and China on the Roof of the World. However, the real stakes of control China and India remain at odds over tiny sliver of land in mountain terrain that is almost uninhabitable. Although the fighting has been relatively limited, leaders who are keen to preserve national prestige can quickly become dangerous.
Whether Modi, Xi or both fit the description is a different question. But the governments they lead have yet to find a way out of the conflict. The Chinese and Indians may be tempted to resolve the conflict through escalation. That could work well, but could lead to a more serious and destructive conflict.
Pray World War III Never Comes
Although it is unlikely that any of these conflicts will become a global conflict despite the fact that the Ukraine War already contains some elements of great power war, it is still highly unlikely. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has, if nothing else, demonstrated that major wars can still happen despite the best efforts of the international community. Maintaining peace requires careful statesmanship; managing escalation during war requires extraordinary skill.
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We can hope that the leaders of the world’s great powers will take care over the coming year with the vast stockpiles of weapons that they control.
19FortyFive’s Defense and National Security Contributing Editor, Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He earned his BS in 1997 from the University of Oregon, and his Ph.D. in 2004 from the University of Washington. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997 and his Ph.D. from the University of Washington, 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded. The Case for Eliminating the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky), 2014), Battleship Book, Wildside, 2016, Patents for Power. Intellectual Property Law. Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago), 2020). Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). A number of magazines and journals have featured his contributions, including the National Interest magazine, Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review and American Prospect. Dr. Farley was also the senior editor and founder of Lawyers, Guns, and Money.
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