2024 Is Make or Break for the Senate GOP

Senate Republicans enter the 2024 election cycle with an advantage. They will need to win two seats, or one if they win the presidency, in order to control the chamber. And they have many targets. Two-thirds of the 34 seats are up for grabs by Democrats or independents who co-chair with Democrats. This map is beloved by Republicans.

It is understandable. Democrats must defend three seats from states that backed Donald Trump with significant margins in 2016 and 2020. The Democrats must also defend five seats in states won by President Joe Biden by less than 5%. There are also no Republican incumbents in Biden states, and only two candidates whose prior election margins were less than 5 percent. Ted Cruz, Texas, and Rick Scott, Florida both hail from states Trump won twice. These states are more likely to turn red next year.

It appears that Republicans are well on their way towards capturing the Senate. But appearances can sometimes be deceiving. Senate Republicans also looked promising in the last election cycle. They held 50 seats, had a favorable political atmosphere, and were looking for possible pickups in the three states Trump lost by a narrow margin in 2020. They lost one seat, and have been fighting ever since.

Senate Republicans are determined to prevent another repeat. They also know that they will be at defense in 2026 as well as 2028 and that less seats will be available. They also know that they will be on defense in 2026 and 2028, with fewer seats. Follow the presidential returns. Only five current senators belong to a different party than their state’s most recent choice for president—and most of them are Democrats who are up for reelection this cycle. Unless the next presidential election changes the map dramatically, the 2024 campaign will be a decisive moment for Senate Republicans.

Seizing this opportunity won’t be easy. It will be difficult to seize this opportunity. A good candidate will be friendly, telegenic, fluent with the issues, quick to his feet, and appropriate for the state’s culture. However, Republican Senate prospects have been hampered by bad candidates since the 2010 campaign. It is a party that has a reputation for nominating people who are extreme, odd, or plainly unqualified.

Republicans must not only nominate a presidential candidate who can win the battlegrounds in Arizona and Georgia to avoid a repeat of 2010 and 2012.