2024 elections: How GOP hopefuls fare in the debate criteria

Get Ready for the 2024 Republican Debate

In about twelve weeks, 2024 Republican hopefuls will have the opportunity to square off in the first party-sanctioned debate of the 2024 cycle.

Excitement is building as the Republican National Committee has released its criteria for qualifying for the debate. Candidates must routinely poll about 1% in either an early state poll and two national polls, or in at least three national polls. They will also be required to accrue donations from a minimum of 40,000 donors and sign a party pledge which includes a commitment to back the eventual nominee. Notably, eligible polling “must be conducted on or after July 1,” and candidates must prove they meet the qualification standards by Aug. 21.

Who’s In?

Here’s where the 2024 field appears to stand:

• Donald Trump: As the reigning front-runner, former President Donald Trump has proven to be a fundraising juggernaut and clinched a roughly 30-point lead over his peers in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls. All that stands in his way is the pledge, which was a major sticking point for him in the 2016 election cycle, and the question of whether debating his rivals is even worth it for the former president.
• Ron DeSantis: Consistently polling in second place and similarly hauling in large amounts of cash, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is a shoo-in for the debate as he doesn’t appear to have qualms with the loyalty pledge.
• Mike Pence: Expected to announce his campaign this week, former Vice President Mike Pence has generally polled in either third or fourth place in the RealClearPolitics aggregate. Given his prominence in the party, Pence will likely garner sufficient donors as well.
• Nikki Haley: One of the first major candidates to jump into the 2024 arena other than Trump, former United Nations Ambassador, and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has generally clocked in around either third or fourth place. More recently, she’s clinched third place in the RealClearPolitics aggregate, and she also has ample fundraising prowess.
• Vivek Ramaswamy: Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is ringing in at 2.6 percentage points in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate and claims to have already struck the donor threshold.
• Tim Scott: Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) threw his hat into the ring last month. He has already met the polling metric and appears to have a robust network of donors that he built up during his time in the upper chamber.

Likely In

These contenders appear to be on the verge of clearing the debate hurdles, but aren’t necessarily guaranteed to:

• Chris Christie: Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie nabbed a few 1% standings in several polls already and appears to have a considerable donor base at his disposal given his last run for president in 2016. Still, it’s not necessarily a given that he’ll make it. He is expected to announce his 2024 campaign on Tuesday.
• Larry Elder: Conservative radio host and former California gubernatorial hopeful Larry Elder has clinched 0.5% in the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate. But he managed to snag 1% in multiple polls last month. Additionally, his campaign has expressed confidence that he will meet the donor requirements.
• Chris Sununu: Not yet in the contest, Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) has displayed an ability to garner over 1% support in polling, but his donor base is a little murkier. He has also been fiercely critical of Trump in public.
• Asa Hutchinson: Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has been critical of the RNC donor requirements and the pledge. But he has managed to clear the 1% threshold in numerous polls.

More of a Lift

At least half a dozen aspirants who have either declared or are poised to enter the race are likely worried about the criteria if they are keen on getting on the debate stage. This includes Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), businessman and author Perry Johnson, businessman Ryan Binkley, former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX), and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez. In those instances, the aspirant either lacks evidence of being able to meet the 1% polling threshold or the donor requirements.

Are you excited for the 2024 Republican debate? Who do you think will come out on top? Let us know in the comments!