{"id":964258,"date":"2021-11-03T19:43:45","date_gmt":"2021-11-03T23:43:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=964258"},"modified":"2021-11-03T19:43:48","modified_gmt":"2021-11-03T23:43:48","slug":"analysis-democrat-senate-majority-now-in-serious-jeopardy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-democrat-senate-majority-now-in-serious-jeopardy\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: Democrat Senate Majority Now in Serious Jeopardy"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"&quot;\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">16<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fanalysis-democrat-senate-majority-now-in-serious-jeopardy%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=964258&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/GettyImages-1343562642-e1635969231875-640x335-1.jpg\" class=\"ff-og-image-inserted\" \/><\/div>\n<p class=\"subheading\">After Governor-elect Glenn&nbsp;Youngkin (R) built momentum in recent months on the campaign trail with Republicans&nbsp;and won Virginia\u2019s gubernatorial race after&nbsp;initially being the underdog,&nbsp;the&nbsp;University of Virginia Center for Politics&nbsp;shifts several Democrat Senate seats to \u201cToss-up.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The analysis from the Center for Politics <a href=\"https:\/\/centerforpolitics.org\/crystalball\/articles\/republican-sweep-in-virginia-sets-off-alarm-bells-for-democrats\/\">explained<\/a> that&nbsp;Youngkin\u2019s win confirmed that Democrats had a \u201cpoor environment\u201d in Virginia, \u201cwhich if replicated next November could help the Republicans win back the House and the Senate.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"D-ROS-B1\" class=\"a8d\"><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"M-ROS-B1\" class=\"a8d\"><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"gmxrevmore\" class=\"H\"><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cNeedless to say, this is a horrible result for Democrats and for the White House,\u201d the analysis further explained. \u201cYoungkin\u2019s 2-point victory\u2026 represented an 11-point shift in the GOP\u2019s favor from 4 years ago, when now-Gov. Ralph Northam (D) won by almost 9 points. Going back a bit further to 2013, McAuliffe won by 2.5 points that year.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure id=\"M-ROS-B2\" class=\"a8d\"><\/figure>\n<p>The Center for Politics changed four major Democrat Senate races, a year ahead of the midterms:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sen. Mark Kelly\u2019s Arizona Senate seat was changed to a \u201cToss-up\u201d from \u201cLeans Democratic.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Sen.&nbsp;Raphael Warnock\u2019s Georgia&nbsp;Senate seat was changed to a \u201cToss-up\u201d from \u201cLeans Democratic.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Sen.&nbsp;Catherine Cortez Masto\u2019s Nevada&nbsp;Senate seat was changed to a \u201cToss-up\u201d from \u201cLeans Democratic.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Sen.&nbsp;Michael Bennet\u2019s Colorado&nbsp;Senate seat was changed from&nbsp;\u201cSafe Democratic\u201d to \u201cLikely Democratic,\u201d not entirely being pushed to&nbsp;\u201cToss-up\u201d for the time being.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\" readability=\"12.414937759336\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Crystal Ball Senate rating changes:<\/p>\n<p>AZ, GA, NV Leans D &gt; Toss-up<br \/>CO Safe D &gt; Likely D<\/p>\n<p>Why we made the changes, and a breakdown of last night, here: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xoa42F8Mvb\">https:\/\/t.co\/xoa42F8Mvb<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ObriLkzp7a\">pic.twitter.com\/ObriLkzp7a<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kkondik\/status\/1455891689437114373?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 3, 2021<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The Center for Politics provided extra analysis:<\/p>\n<blockquote readability=\"23\">\n<p>So it\u2019s a good time to reevaluate our assessment of the Senate. Given the usual presidential party midterm drag, and the poor environment, our ratings are just too bullish on Democrats. So we are downgrading Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Raphael Warnock (D-GA), and Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. While we have not been particularly impressed with Republican candidate recruiting in these races \u2014 former NFL star and Trump favorite Herschel Walker seems like a particularly risky choice in Georgia, assuming he wins the nomination \u2014 these moves are almost entirely about the environment. Moreover, even if Republicans don\u2019t end up running strong candidates in these races, all 3 states are markedly less blue than Virginia.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cToss-up\u201d doesn\u2019t mean we think these Democratic senators will necessarily lose \u2014 it just means we don\u2019t think the environment suggests they do not deserve to be considered even modest favorites anymore. We will dig into these races in more detail in future issues of the [Center for Politics], but we thought now was a good time to make these changes, given what Tuesday night\u2019s results suggested about the broader political mood. Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) retains a Leans Democratic designation in New Hampshire, but we will move her race to Toss-up when and if Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) launches his long-rumored challenge against her.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The Center for Politics notes that the midterm elections are still roughly a year away, and conditions could improve for the Democrats such as gas prices, inflation, supply-chain crisis, Democrat infighting on Capitol Hill, and coronavirus. Additionally, President Joe Biden\u2019s approval rating has continually been tanking, dropping as low as 36 percent in one poll.<\/p>\n<p>However, this leaves the Senate majority up in the air. Under the Center for Politics\u2019 predictions, Republicans would have the upper hand with 49 seats, and the Democrats would have 47 seats, with four seats shown as a current \u201cToss-up.\u201d The&nbsp;\u201cToss-up\u201d seats are&nbsp;Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and Pennsylvania. A Republican currently holds Pennsylvania. \u201cSplitting the Toss-ups would give the GOP a 51-49 edge,\u201d the analysis said.<\/p>\n<p><em>Jacob Bliss is a reporter for Breitbart News. You can follow him on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jacobmbliss\">Twitter<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After Governor-elect Glenn\u00a0Youngkin (R) built momentum in recent months on the campaign trail with Republicans\u00a0and won Virginia\u2019s gubernatorial race after\u00a0initially being the underdog,\u00a0the\u00a0University of Virginia Center for Politics\u00a0shifts several Democrat &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-964258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/964258","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/20"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=964258"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/964258\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=964258"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=964258"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=964258"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}