{"id":883295,"date":"2021-10-15T13:14:34","date_gmt":"2021-10-15T17:14:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=883295"},"modified":"2021-10-15T13:14:38","modified_gmt":"2021-10-15T17:14:38","slug":"economists-troubling-consumer-sentiment-data-point-to-looming-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/economists-troubling-consumer-sentiment-data-point-to-looming-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Economists: Troubling Consumer Sentiment Data Point To Looming Recession"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Feconomists-troubling-consumer-sentiment-data-point-to-looming-recession%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=883295&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><p>A pair of economists argue that recent drops in consumer sentiment point to a looming recession.<\/p>\n<p>On October 7, David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College and Alex Bryson of University College London released a <a href=\"https:\/\/cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com\/sites.dartmouth.edu\/dist\/5\/2216\/files\/2021\/10\/us-fear-oct-8-final-nber.pdf\">paper<\/a> entitled \u201cThe Economics of Walking About and Predicting US Downturns.\u201d Recalling the failure of analysts to predict the 2008 recession, the economists argued that the \u201cwisdom of crowds\u201d held by non-expert economic actors is often superior to the knowledge of \u201cexperts.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Accordingly, rapid downturns in consumer sentiment surveys \u2014 especially those from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan \u2014 have successfully predicted recessions for the past four decades.<\/p>\n<p>The economists write:<\/p>\n<p><em>We show consumer expectations indices from both The Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict economic downturns up to 18 months in advance in the United States, both at national and at state-level. All the recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10 and sometimes many more point drops in these indices.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>There are clear downward movements in consumer expectations in the last six months which, according to our rules of thumb regarding 10-point declines, would suggest the economy in the United States is entering recession now (Autumn 2021) \u2014 even though employment and wage growth figures suggest otherwise.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Although the unemployment rate has gradually fallen through 2021, there are other worrying trends in the United States economy \u2014 including rampant shortages, rising inflation, and a stagnant labor force participation rate. A recent debt ceiling debate in Congress \u2014 which ended with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailywire.com\/news\/mcconnell-offers-short-term-solution-to-prevent-another-self-created-democrat-crisis-on-debt-limit\">offering<\/a> Democrats a short-term deal to prevent a default on national debt \u2014 also shook the stock market in recent weeks.<\/p>\n<p>As Blanchflower and Bryson observe, the last recession was met with an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dailywire.com\/news\/the-good-bad-and-ugly-economic-lessons-learned-from-the-recession-of-2020\">unprecedented<\/a> amount of federal stimulus spending. Although the National Bureau of Economic Research concluded that the 2020 recession was the shortest in American history \u2014 officially lasting only two months \u2014 the federal government responded more aggressively than in any previous downturn.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>In March 2020, President Trump signed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act; in December 2020, he signed another $900 billion aid package. In March 2021, President Biden approved the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.<\/p>\n<p>If the trillions in federal spending were disbursed among America\u2019s 143.3 million taxpayers, each would have received roughly $41,000. If the funds were instead divided among every member of the population, every American would have received $18,000.<\/p>\n<p>The Daily Wire is one of<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A pair of economists argue that recent drops in consumer sentiment point to a looming recession.On October 7, David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College and Alex Bryson of University College London released a paper entitled \u201cThe Economics of Walking About and Predicting US Downturns.\u201d Recalling the failure of analysts to predict the 2008 recession, the economists argued that the \u201cwisdom of crowds\u201d held by non-expert economic actors is often superior to the knowledge of \u201cexperts.\u201dAccordingly, rapid downturns in consumer sentiment surveys \u2014 especially those from the Conference Board and the University of Michigan \u2014 have successfully predicted recessions for the past four decades.The economists write:We show consumer expectations indices from both The Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict economic downturns up to 18 months in advance in the United States, both at national and at state-level. All the recessions since the 1980s have been predicted by at least 10 and sometimes many more point drops in these indices.\u00a0There are clear downward movements in consumer expectations in the last six months which, according to our rules of thumb regarding 10-point declines, would suggest the economy in the United States is entering recession now (Autumn 2021) \u2014 even though employment and wage growth figures suggest otherwise.Although the unemployment rate has gradually fallen through 2021, there are other worrying trends in the United States economy \u2014 including rampant shortages, rising inflation, and a stagnant labor force participation rate. A recent debt ceiling debate in Congress \u2014 which ended with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) offering Democrats a short-term deal to prevent a default on national debt \u2014 also shook the stock market in recent weeks.As Blanchflower and Bryson observe, the last recession was met with an unprecedented amount of federal stimulus spending. Although the National Bureau of Economic Research concluded that the 2020 recession was the shortest in American history \u2014 officially lasting only two months \u2014 the federal government responded more aggressively than in any previous downturn.\u00a0In March 2020, President Trump signed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act; in December 2020, he signed another $900 billion aid package. In March 2021, President Biden approved the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.If the trillions in federal spending were disbursed among America\u2019s 143.3 million taxpayers, each would have received roughly $41,000. If the funds were instead divided among every member of the population, every American would have received $18,000.The Daily Wire is one of America\u2019s fastest-growing conservative media companies and counter-cultural outlets for news, opinion, and entertainment. Get inside access to The Daily Wire by becoming a member.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-883295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/883295","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=883295"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/883295\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=883295"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=883295"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=883295"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}