{"id":872364,"date":"2021-10-12T19:13:30","date_gmt":"2021-10-12T23:13:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=872364"},"modified":"2021-10-12T19:13:33","modified_gmt":"2021-10-12T23:13:33","slug":"analysis-joe-biden-better-hope-these-polls-arent-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/analysis-joe-biden-better-hope-these-polls-arent-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"ANALYSIS: Joe Biden Better Hope These Polls Aren\u2019t Wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"<aside class=\"mashsb-container mashsb-main mashsb-stretched\"><div class=\"mashsb-box\"><div class=\"mashsb-count mash-medium\" style=\"float:left\"><div class=\"counts mashsbcount\">18<\/div><span class=\"mashsb-sharetext\">SHARES<\/span><\/div><div class=\"mashsb-buttons\"><a class=\"mashicon-facebook mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.conservativenewsdaily.net%2Fbreaking-news%2Fanalysis-joe-biden-better-hope-these-polls-arent-wrong%2F\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Facebook<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-twitter mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intent\/tweet?text=&amp;url=https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/?p=872364&amp;via=ConservNewsDly\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Twitter<\/span><\/a><a class=\"mashicon-subscribe mash-medium mash-nomargin mashsb-noshadow\" href=\"#\" target=\"_top\" rel=\"nofollow\"><span class=\"icon\"><\/span><span class=\"text\">Subscribe<\/span><\/a><div class=\"onoffswitch2 mash-medium mashsb-noshadow\" style=\"display:none\"><\/div><\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                <div style=\"clear:both\"><\/div><\/aside>\n            <!-- Share buttons by mashshare.net - Version: 4.0.47--><div><\/div>\n<p>The last two U.S. presidential elections have featured substantial polling misses that overestimated support for Democratic candidates. If support for President Joe Biden is being overcounted headed into the 2022 midterms, things may go from bad to catastrophic for Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>Biden began his presidency with a cushy honeymoon period that saw approval ratings north of 55%. It\u2019s hard to fathom any politician in today\u2019s divided environment being able to maintain a plus-20-point net approval among all Americans, but that\u2019s what Biden was able to do early on.<\/p>\n<p>Then, as his administration began to actually govern, the slide began. His average approval fell from almost 54% on June 1, to 52% on July 1, to 46.7% on Sep. 1, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/projects.fivethirtyeight.com\/biden-approval-rating\/?cid=rrpromo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">FiveThirtyEight polling average<\/a>. Now, he sits with a net approval of negative 4.7%, according to FiveThirtyEight. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/epolls\/other\/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">RealClearPolitics<\/a> (RCP) has him even deeper underwater, at negative 9.3 points. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/10\/08\/not-good-cnn-joe-bidens-tanking-approval-rating\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(RELATED: \u2018Not Good\u2019: CNN Calls Out Biden\u2019s Tanking Approval Ratings)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Anyone who has paid attention to politics this year has noticed this downward trend, and that must include the officials inside the Biden administration itself. They have been hesitant to acknowledge it, though, and when they do, it typically comes with a quick deflection to events out of their control, such as COVID-19 or supply chain clogs.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" readability=\"15.244837758112\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">\u201cWe don\u2019t get too glum around here, even if things get challenging,\u201d Psaki says regarding issues facing the White House, from division over Biden\u2019s agenda, skyrocketing gas prices, poll numbers declining. Biden was elected to get his agenda passed &amp; unite his party, she says.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Kaitlan Collins (@kaitlancollins) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kaitlancollins\/status\/1447999273140883462?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 12, 2021<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Back in August, <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/08\/22\/biden-cbs-news-poll-majority-americans-competent-focused-effective\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Biden said he hadn\u2019t<\/a> seen a new poll that found a majority of Americans don\u2019t see him as competent or effective. When asked this month what she made of Biden\u2019s terrible poll numbers, <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/10\/07\/white-house-climate-change-energy-prices-jen-psaki-joe-biden\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">White House<\/a> press secretary <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/10\/08\/terrible-polls-jen-psaki-unvaccinated\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Jen Psaki responded<\/a> that not enough people were getting vaccinated and implied that the chief problem dragging down the administration was the Delta variant surge of COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p>The data doesn\u2019t support that, though. COVID-19 cases and deaths have been sharply declining since mid-September, <a href=\"https:\/\/covid.cdc.gov\/covid-data-tracker\/#trends_dailydeaths%7Cnew_death%7Cselect\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data<\/a>, but Biden\u2019s approval rating hasn\u2019t ticked upward during that time period. RCP has his popularity declining by another couple of points in the last month.<\/p>\n<p>Biden\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/10\/01\/joe-biden-approval-rating-white-house-afghanistan-economy-pandemic\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">net approval<\/a> broke into the negative right around the end of August, almost to the day that he gave a <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/08\/26\/biden-responsibility-afghanistan-debacle-blames-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">rocky press conference<\/a> after 13 American troops were killed in Afghanistan. The rapid decline of his polling numbers coincided with the disastrous pullout from Afghanistan just as much, if not more so, as it did with the Delta variant surge of COVID-19. At one point, even <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/08\/26\/poll-42-percent-democrats-blame-biden-evacuation-afghanistan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">42% of Democrats<\/a> blamed Biden directly for the botched withdrawal, in addition to three out of every four independents.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" readability=\"15.268292682927\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">In new Quinnipiac poll, President Biden\u2019s approval rating drops to 38%, the lowest of his presidency, and his lowest marks come at the border.<\/p>\n<p>23% approve of Biden\u2019s handling of the border.<br \/>67% disapprove.<\/p>\n<p>25% approve of Biden\u2019s handling of immigration issues.<br \/>67% disapprove.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bill Melugin (@BillFOXLA) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BillFOXLA\/status\/1445901903024508928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 7, 2021<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The poor numbers for Biden also aren\u2019t exclusive to his handling of the pandemic. His approval rating is at 40% or less on the economy, immigration, foreign policy and national security, according to the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/f\/?id=0000017c-5392-d47e-ab7e-dfb2c5590000&amp;nname=playbook&amp;nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&amp;nrid=0000014e-f0ee-dd93-ad7f-f8ef42ed0002&amp;nlid=630318#page14\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">latest tracking poll<\/a> from Politico\/Morning Consult.<\/p>\n<p>As for 2022, it would benefit the Biden administration and Democrats more broadly if the polls are accurate. An approval rating in the low-to-mid 40s for the leader of the party will almost certainly lead to heavy losses in 2022, if history is any indication. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/10\/07\/neil-patel-americans-rejecting-joe-biden-radicals-democrats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(RELATED: PATEL: The American People Are Rejecting A President Too Weak To Take On The Radicals In His Own Party)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In America\u2019s most recent midterm election, President Donald Trump\u2019s approval rating sat at 40%, with 54% disapproving, in the final days before voters went to the polls, <a href=\"https:\/\/news.gallup.com\/poll\/203198\/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">according to Gallup<\/a>. In the Senate, the GOP benefitted from a favorable map with Democrats defending seats in states like Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri, and gained two seats in the chamber. But in the House of Representatives, Republicans lost the nationwide vote by almost nine points and dropped 41 seats. At the gubernatorial level, Democrats gained seven of 39 contested seats.<\/p>\n<p>If pollsters are once again underestimating Republicans, say by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearpolitics.com\/articles\/2021\/10\/11\/if_polls_are_right_dems_are_doomed_if_theyre_wrong_its_worse_146544.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">about the four percent<\/a> they did in 2020, things will be even worse for Democrats. It could look something more like former President Barack Obama\u2019s first midterm in 2010, in which Democrats lost 63 house seats and six Senate seats.<\/p>\n<p>It doesn\u2019t help that Biden is bleeding support among some of his party\u2019s most crucial constituencies. <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/10\/11\/biden-hispanics-poll-numbers-2024-trump\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Particularly among Latino voters<\/a>, Biden\u2019s approval has tanked from typically high Democrat levels as the crisis at the southern border has dragged on month after month with no end in sight. <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/09\/06\/joe-biden-voters-regret-2020-zogby-analytics\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(RELATED: Poll: 1 In 5 Democrats, Likely Voters Regret Voting For Joe Biden)<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There is plenty of time for Biden to turn things around, of course. One year from now, COVID-19 could be under control, supply chains could clear up, his administration could decide to start enforcing border control and inflation could slow down.<\/p>\n<p>It could also get worse. His infrastructure program appears to be on the verge of death every day in Congress as the Progressive Caucus battles it out with Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, and Republicans may become more enthused as the 2024 presidential field begins to take shape.<\/p>\n<p>Even with improved <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/10\/06\/quinnipiac-poll-joe-biden-job-performance-low\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">polling numbers<\/a>, or accurate numbers that don\u2019t overcount Democrats, for now, Biden\u2019s party faces an uphill climb. Parties that control Washington rarely perform well in midterms regardless of how good or bad a job they are doing. The Democrats only have to lose 5 seats to hand Republicans a majority in the House, and they are clinging onto a 50-50 split in the Senate broken only by Vice President Kamala Harris. Democratic voter registration is down in some key <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/09\/21\/biden-iowa-approval-rating-poll-afghanistan-covid-des-moines\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">swing states<\/a>, and Republicans hold a significant redistricting advantage due to their success in state-level elections in recent years.<\/p>\n<p>If the current poll numbers are accurate, Biden will almost certainly lose his Congressional majorities, and thus his ability to pass major legislation for the remainder of his first term in the White House. If the polls <a href=\"https:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2021\/09\/10\/cnn-announces-changes-methodology-media-support-republican-candidates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">are off again<\/a>, he could be facing a 2010-level wipeout.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The last two U.S. presidential elections have featured substantial polling misses that overestimated support for Democratic candidates. If support for President Joe Biden is being overcounted headed into the 2022 &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2315279,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","fifu_image_url":"","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-872364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/872364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=872364"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/872364\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2315279"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=872364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=872364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.conservativenewsdaily.net\/breaking-news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=872364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}